NIFTY FIFTY

[srisara]

lets hope so.... as i have shorted NIFTY.....

satya

 

[AMITBE]

Its anyones call now. I have been feeling uncomfortable with the looks of the market, so just posting the tech levels for now.
To the up, 2438 and crossing this, 2445.
To the down, 2417 and 2405.

 

[Anupama Singh]

Its anyones call now. I have been feeling uncomfortable with the looks of the market, so just posting the tech levels for now.
To the up, 2438 and crossing this, 2445.
To the down, 2417 and 2405.

Hi Amit,
For education,what do you see in your data that is getting you nervous at these levels other than the fact that we are at new highs?Please clarify....Trying to learn how you think.

Anu

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,
For education,what do you see in your data that is getting you nervous at these levels other than the fact that we are at new highs?Please clarify....Trying to learn how you think. Anu

Hi Anupama...nothing in the data as such.
When a price or index value sky-rokets, there usually comes a pull back to fill the gaps left behind. This is like a consolidation phase.
With the NIFTY, this is the seventh day on a roll where it's making new highs. In itself this may be ok, but crucially, the volume has been feeble, as has been the davanve/decline ratio, meaning there are more declines than advances.
There is a strong inflow of funds from institutional buyers which has been driving up the market mainly. They have built up massive stakes now, and will book profits sometime or the other. They all understand the nature of this game. Get out at highs, then short sell, let the market tank, then come in again lower.
The NIFTY is in an over-bought zone now, and there is a strong case for consolidation at this point, better at lower levels where some balance would come for a new upside later.
This is for now.

 

[Anupama Singh]

Hi Anupama...nothing in the data as such.
When a price or index value sky-rokets, there usually comes a pull back to fill the gaps left behind. This is like a consolidation phase.
With the NIFTY, this is the seventh day on a roll where it's making new highs. In itself this may be ok, but crucially, the volume has been feeble, as has been the davanve/decline ratio, meaning there are more declines than advances.
There is a strong inflow of funds from institutional buyers which has been driving up the market mainly. They have built up massive stakes now, and will book profits sometime or the other. They all understand the nature of this game. Get out at highs, then short sell, let the market tank, then come in again lower.
The NIFTY is in an over-bought zone now, and there is a strong case for consolidation at this point, better at lower levels where some balance would come for a new upside later.
This is for now.

Thanks a lot,Amit for your continued guidance!

Anu

 

[Saint]

Hi Anupama...nothing in the data as such.
When a price or index value sky-rokets, there usually comes a pull back to fill the gaps left behind. This is like a consolidation phase.
With the NIFTY, this is the seventh day on a roll where it's making new highs. In itself this may be ok, but crucially, the volume has been feeble, as has been the davanve/decline ratio, meaning there are more declines than advances.
There is a strong inflow of funds from institutional buyers which has been driving up the market mainly. They have built up massive stakes now, and will book profits sometime or the other. They all understand the nature of this game. Get out at highs, then short sell, let the market tank, then come in again lower.
The NIFTY is in an over-bought zone now, and there is a strong case for consolidation at this point, better at lower levels where some balance would come for a new upside later.
This is for now.

Hi Amit,
Once again,great analysis.......this is a time for caution.Not because of Sensex touching 8000,although that may play psychologically.More than that,it's the overbought+bearish divergences+low volumes+multiple days up in a row that's some cause for worry.Am not saying that 8000 is the absolute top,though.Personally feel we're headed higher........but not before some amount of pullback first.

Great stuff,.........yet again!

Saint

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,
Once again,great analysis.......this is a time for caution.Not because of Sensex touching 8000,although that may play psychologically.More than that,it's the overbought+bearish divergences+low volumes+multiple days up in a row that's some cause for worry.Am not saying that 8000 is the absolute top,though.Personally feel we're headed higher........but not before some amount of pullback first.

Great stuff,.........yet again! Saint

Hi saint...thanks again!
Yes, I agree with you there is more to come, and it's important that we see an orderly pull back so that there is no panic selling.
A lot of strongly trending scrips are fluttering a tad, waiting for a direction.

 

[AMITBE]

So we are going through the roof...2452 tested. Bajaj Auto amongst many gainers.
Feeling dumbfound at all this.
If action and reaction are equal and opposite...don't even wanna think about it.

 

[Saint]

So we are going through the roof...2452 tested. Bajaj Auto amongst many gainers.
Feeling dumbfound at all this.
If action and reaction are equal and opposite...don't even wanna think about it.

The higher we defy gravity and climb in this manner,the harder will be the pullback..........like what u just said,don't wanna think about it.

Saint

 

[AMITBE]

The higher we defy gravity and climb in this manner,the harder will be the pullback..........like what u just said,don't wanna think about it.
Saint

Yes saint...and I don't want to sound like the prophet of doom, but I'm pretty scared.
Will go cash now on some positions.