Nifty and Indian stocks

[devadas]

Re: Nifty

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY (5,852.25 ) -90.80 -1.53 %

In my last post I had mentioned two points namely 1) That Nifty is facing resistance at the Upsloping Trendline and 20 dma at 5951 ( yellow moving average). 2) In the current upmove volumes are decreasing as shown by the pink arrowline.

For any trend to continue, it should be supported by volumes which was not happening here.So you see the result the Market cracked.

There are two possible scenarios at this juncture :

1) The market may move between the ledge shown by pink parallel lines. or

2) A straight fall to 5700.

The lower level of Ledge is 5844 and upper level is 5969. 50 dma is at 5925 and 20 dma is at 5940.

 

[devadas]

Re: Nifty

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY (5,850.30) -1.95 -0.03 %

As I mentioned in my last post to watch the pink channel that has formed and NIFTY moved between that channel on Friday.Any break and close below 5844 will take market to 5718. A failure to go below 5844 will take NIFTY to test 5971.

 

[devadas]

Re: Nifty Intraday

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.


CNX NIFTY 5,854.75 + 4.45 + 0.08 %

People keep on asking how to trade intraday charts. I am giving below 5 mins intra chart for todays NIFTY.

Point 1 A positive divergence on Oscillator and price taking support near yesterdays low Go Long.

Point 2 Negative divergence near yesterdays high Go Short.

Point 3 Positive divergence followed by breakout Failure near yesterdays low Go Long

Point 4 Breakout Failure but no negative divergence.So ignore it or if you follow only price go short Ignore / Go Short.

Try to combine price patterns and oscillators which will give you a double confirmation.

Would you take a Long position at point 5, extreme left, when you see Multiple Positive Divergence.If not why ?

Here Price is in a down trend and no supports on price are seen.But despite that price made a pull back but preferable to ignore the trade.Where as in todays trade the boundaries are defined and market is sideways.So supports and resistances are well in place.So take help of oscillators only as confirmations. But always keep stop losses.

 

[devadas]

Re: Nifty

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY (5,761.35) -93.40 -1.60 %

Nifty as I said 2 posts back that a fall below 5879 / 5844 will lead to a fall to around 5718 levels.Today NIFTY fell to a low of 5748.By another method I am getting targets of 5744 which is very near today’s low.Watch Intra charts closely to take further positions.

 

[devadas]

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.
CNX NIFTY (5,796.90) + 35.55 + 0.62 %

Nifty did not break yesterdays low and formed a Harami Pattern today on the daily chart.A harami pattern is a Japanese Candlestick pattern which means pregnant.Also positive divergence has appeared on the daily chart which means price is making new lows but oscillator, stochastics is this case, is making higher lows.

So beware of going fresh short. Market may move sideways or upto the 20 dma at around 5890. Stoploss is a close below 5748, If long.

 

[timepass]

Hello Devadas, in Sharekhan's TradeTiger you can save a chart to an image file (.jpg file) directly using right click on the chart; no need to capture the whole screen.

See the procedure below :

 

[devadas]

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY 5,693.05 (-103.85) -1.79 %

Nifty opened up 50 points in the green, the result of positive divergence on the oscillator.But it could not sustain at that level and fell below 5849.9 . Market went to a high of 5849.9 and returned from there. It was the neckline of a Shoulder Head Shoulder pattern which was forming on the daily charts. It is a bearish pattern and the target is 5600 to lower levels.

Since the positive divergence on the oscillator is still valid, expect sharp upswings, but not the time to go long.Going short in the market at this juncture will not give a good risk reward ratio since the Neckline of the SHS pattern is at 5850 which will act as a stoploss and target is around 5600.So does not make sense to go after 100 points with a risk of 150 points.


Better strategy is to wait for the markets to pullback, if at all, and then sell on any reversal pattern provided 5600 is not touched already.A negation of this bearish pattern will take place only if Nifty closes above 5971, which is the right shoulder, for 3 consecutive days.Till then bears will enjoy.

 

[devadas]

Re: Nifty

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY (5,698.50) -21.20 -0.37 %

In Chess Parlance :

Waiting move
1. A passive but harmless move played while waiting for initiative from the opponent.
2. A move which carries no threat in and of itself but places the opponent in zugzwang.

Zugzwang
[from the German] When a player is put at a disadvantage by having to make a move; where any legal move weakens the position. Zugzwang usually occurs in the endgame, and rarely in the middlegame.

What has Chess got to do with markets ? I feel a lot of similarity.Markets are in a waiting move.Here you anticipate that something is going to happen, do not wait for a confirmation and you are in Zugzwang.

Take the present market scenario, the following observations are made out :

1) Overall picture bearish because of a big Shoulder Head Shoulder pattern.
2) Micro patterns show pause because of a) Positive divergence on oscillators and
b) Today’s volume is very low ( see chart)
c) Today Nifty futures did not break 28 th Feb low ( See chart ) whereas the spot broke the low and also volume is low.

If you look at Micro picture and go long, the Big picture of bearishness will trigger and you are in Zugzwang and if you go short, the Micro picture may trigger making markets move against you i.e to the upside for a short time and again you are in Zugzwang.

Also today’s lack of volume — is it a clue to lack of selling at present levels.? Wait for confirmation.


NIFTY DAILY

NIFTY FUTURES

 

[devadas]

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.

CNX NIFTY (5,784.25) + 85.75 + 1.50 %

Read the last line of my yesterdays post. I had mentioned Also todays lack of volume is it a clue to lack of selling at present levels.?. The lack of selling, the positive divergences on the oscillators and the failure by Nifty Futures to break Budget days low were clues enough to an adept to gauge the direction of the market.From Budget day itself, despite my bearishness, I was cautioning against going short because of the abovementioned reasons.It was like a coil on which pressure was building and the release of it saw the Zoom today.

The Neckline of the SHS pattern is 5855 and the right shoulder top is at 5971.Intermediate term resistances are 20 dma at 5841 and 50 dma at 5882.A move or pullback to 5855 is normal for a SHS pattern which is termed as a Pullback.Concerns will start for the bears if it closes above 5855 and above 5971, the bearishness also is in serious doubt.

If markets are very bearish, then the market may not even test 5851, may not show reversal patterns like Doji, Hanging man, Evening star etc and the next day opening itself may be a gap-down day.

 

[devadas]

DISCLAIMER: These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on them.Trading in Stocks/Commodities/Futures Carry Risk.


CNX NIFTY 5,863.30 + 44.70 + 0.77 %

I said in my last post that a test of 5855 is okay for this pattern.This is called a Pullback .Nifty, because of the power of positive divergence, has appreciated during the last 3 sessions. 5878, the 50 dma, is going to be a very formidable resistance.Watch this level.Markets may reverse from this level immediately or pause at these levels for next 2-3 days.A close above 5971 negates the bearish pattern.Overall pattern is still bearish.