Hi
Any advice to hedge my under threat trade.
I sold 5500 CE @ 17rs JULY.
Now running @ 28 and there may be chances NIFTY reaching 5500 July Expiry.
I am not into futures so any option advise.
Thanks
Dear Cool kk,
First of all always believe that there is a solution to any problem. Hence to your position too there is a solution which you can use to tackle this tricky situation you are currently in.
Before that, let me tell you that no one has been able to predict market direction and magnitude on the basis of FII activity so you can conveniently ignore this data. Also OI (near month, mid month etc) is the most confusing statistics which will help get matters worse than what they are (Can elaborate on OI but some other time).
Remember that if you torture data too much it will confess to any crime. And more the reason to follow this rule when you are trading in Options as here not only the direction but TIME is your biggest obstacle to tackle (either buying or writing options).
The situation you are in is quite rewarding as you are trying to pocket the fast decaying value of OTM call option as the expiry nears. I have set such trade successfully on many occasions.
But now as you have got in and there has been a sharp move against your position and you are not into Futures, I would suggest the following action:
1) Keep the position as it is till the market moves below 5500 and if it remains below this level till expiry you are the most happiest man.
2) As normally seen, we see resistance at '00 levels i.e. 5200, 5300, 5500 etc in Nifty and same can be expected here too. (but refer you charts / indicators / methods to confirm this)
3) Even if Nifty breaches 5500 do not act. We normally see a pull back at '00 levels quite often, hence an occasional breach should not worry you. If this continues till Thursday, you are home.
4) As you have collected Rs. 17 premium, you will not lose till 5517, hence if the Nifty stays above 5500 (and you are 'convinced' that it is now comfortable over this level) then at AROUND 5520-25 levels you build a synthetic long future by, writing 5400 Put and buying 5400 Call. Time decay will not affect this synthetic long future set up and if Nifty keeps rising beyond 5520, you will be protected.
Your objective of your positon should change as per the below possibilities :
1) Nifty is below 5500 : (Objective : Profit of Rs. 17)
2) Nifty between hovering between 5490-5510 : (Objective < Rs. 17 profit)
3) Nifty around 5520 and trending upwards: (Objective = No profit - No loss)
Regards,