journey of a trader

oilman5

Well-Known Member
its a collection of SAINT
Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind. If you're a trader just starting out, where do you find the initial confidence to pull the trigger? How do you deal with the down times without digging yourself deeper into the hole? If you are in a hole, how do you work your way back out? How do experienced traders push through the ceiling of profitability that caps their initial trading years and make a truly fabulous living?

Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.

Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.

There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?

If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.
Principles of Peak Performance
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they're up at the end of the month.
Don't think about TRYING to win the game - that goes for any sport or performance-oriented discipline. Stay involved in the process, the technique, the moment, the proverbial here and now.! A trader must concentrate on the present price action of the market. A good analogy is a professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand. He'll probably lose half the points he plays, but he doesn't allow himself to worry about whether or not he's down a set. He must have confidence that by concentrating on the techniques he's worked on in practice, the strengths in his game will prevail and he will be able to outlast his opponent.

The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.

Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful
Analyze the markets when they are closed. Your job during the day is to monitor markets, execute trades and manage positions. Traders should be like fighter pilots - make quick decisions and have quick reflexes. Their plan of attack is already predetermined, yet they must be ready to abort their mission at any stage of the game.

Just as you should put winning out of your mind, so should you put losing out of your mind - quickly. A bad trade doesn't mean you've blown your day. Get rid of the problem quickly and start making the money back. It's like cheating on a diet. You can't undo the damage that's been done. However, it doesn't mean you've blown your whole diet. Get back on track and you'll do fine.

For that matter, the better you are able to eliminate emotions from your day, the better off you will be. A certain amount of detachment adds a healthy dose of objectivity.

Trading is a great business because the markets close at the end of the day (at least some of them). This gives you a zero point from which to begin the next day - a clean slate. Each day is a new day. Forget about how you did the week before. What counts is how you do today!

Sometimes what will happen during the day comes down to knowing yourself. Are you relaxed or distracted? Are you prepared or not? If you can't trade that day, don't! - and don't overanalyze the reasons why or why not. Is psychoanalyzing your childhood going to help your trading? Nonsense!

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.

Good trades don't always work out. A good trade is one that has the probabilities in its favor, but that doesn't mean that it will always work out. People who have a background in game theory understand this well. The statistics are only meaningful when looking at a string of numbers. For example, in professional football, not every play is going to gain yardage. What percentage of games do you need to win in order to make the playoffs? It's a number much smaller than most of us are willing to accept in our own win/loss ratios!

Here is an interesting question: should you look at a trade logically or psychologically? In other words, should every trade stand on its own merits? Theoretically, yes, but in real life it doesn't always work that way. A trader is likely to manage a position differently depending on whether the previous trade was a winner or a loser.
How does one know when to take profits on a good trade? You must ask yourself first how greedy do you want to be, or, how much money do you want to make? And also, does your pattern have a "perceived profit" or objective level? Why is it that we hear successful winning traders complain far more about getting out of good trades too soon than not getting out of bad trades soon enough? There's an old expression: "Profits are like eels, they slip away."

Successful traders are very defensive of their capital. They are far more likely to exit a trade that doesn't work right away than to give it the benefit of the doubt. The best trades work right away!

OK. Realistically, every trader has made a stubborn, big losing trade. What do you do if you're really caught in a pickle? The first thing is to offer a "prayer to the Gods". This means, immediately get rid of half your position. Cut down the size. Right off the bat you are taking action instead of freezing up. You are reducing your risk, and you have shifted the psychological balance to a win-win situation. If the market turns around, you still have part of your position on. If it continues against you, your loss will be more manageable. Usually, you will find that you wished you exited the whole position on the first order, but not everyone is able to do this.

At an annual Market Technician's conference, a famous trader was speaking and someone in the audience asked him what he did when he had terrible losing trades. He replied that when his stomach began to hurt, he'd "puke them at the lows along with everyone else." The point is, everyone makes mistakes but sooner or later you're going to have to exit that nasty losing position.

Feel good" trades help get one back in the game. It's nice to start the day with a winning scalp. It tends to give you more breathing room on the next trade. The day's psychology is shifted in your favor right away. This is also why it's so important to get rid of losing trades the day before. so you don't have to deal with them first thing in the morning. This is usually when the choice opportunity is and you want to be ready to take advantage of it.

A small profitable scalp is the easiest trade to make. The whole secret is to get in and get out of the market as quickly as possible. Enter in the direction of the market's last thrust or impulse. The shorter the period of time you are is the marketplace, the easier it is to make a winning trade. Of course, this strategy of making a small scalp is not substantial enough to make a living, but remember the object is to start the day out on the right foot.

If you are following a methodology consistently (key word), and making money, how do you make more money? You must build up the number of units traded without increasing the leverage. In other words, don't try going for the bigger trade, instead, trade more contracts. It just takes awhile to build up your account or the amount of capital under management. Proper leverage can be the key to your success and longevity in this business. Most traders who run into trouble have too big a trade on. Size influences your objectivity. Your main object should be to stay in the game.

Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgement is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

Master the Game
The last key to achieving mental mastery over the game is believing that you can actually do it. Everyone is capable of being a successful trader if they truly believe they can be. You must believe in the power of belief. If you're a recluse skeptic or self-doubter, begin by pretending to believe you can make it. Keep telling yourself that you'll make it even if it takes you five years. If a person's will is strong enough, they will always find a way.

If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Logics of Trading
* What
o Buy and Sell to make profits
+ Profits means Gain - Expense - Loss - Costs (Business expenses, Tax, Cost of living...)
+ on
# short term
* taking into account the short term variance of the market
* taking into account errors
# long term
* implies
o taking into account the long term variances of the market
+ Normal or predictable variance
+ Abnormal or unpredictable variance
o Take into account
+ Inflation
+ Accidents
+ Insurance
o Risk analysis
+ Can I afford ?
# Capital Requirement
# Time Requirement
# Family obligation
# Competency
# Health
# Psychology
* How
o Preparation
+ Taking the time to study
+ Iterative process
# Plan the study
# Study
# Experiment
* on paper
* on simulator
* for real
o Knowledge
+ Probability
# are SIMPLIFIED THEORY not REALITY
+ Market
# insiders, manipulations, brokers...
# techniques
# models
+ Economy
# Interest rates
# Inflation
# Bonds auction
+ Business
# law of growth
# Risk
# Opportunity
# Diversification in Trading business is different from Normal Business
+ Methods (optimisation, organisation)
o Chance
+ If one enters at the beginning of a secular trend
# Bullish
* Easier + Probability
# Bearish
o Psychology
+ Stress Resistance
+ Patience
+ Intellectual Honesty
+ Logic
+ Intuition
+ Learning capability
o Physical Capability
+ Reflex
# required all the more for short term trading
+ Training by repetition
o Strategy
+ Period
# Intraday
# Daily
# Weekly
# Monthly
+ Horizon within each period
# Short term
based on knowledge and dynamic models (non-linear models, rules of thumbs)
# Long term
* based on knowledge and static models (statistical distributions)
# Mid term
* the most difficult since it is between the two
+ Global Money Management (Choosing leverage range)
+ Global Risk Management (Global loss limitation, Methodology to assess it at check points)
o Tactics
+ Analysis
# TA
* Candlestick

credit violet
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
The best way to find yourself your your niche is to actully put money in your trading system or ideas! It takes most traders anywhere from 3-5 years to discover what works for them and suits their own mental makeup.

Have you actually traded the markets with your own money yet? and what about the results? Have you kept a record of the trades?

If you have then go through the records and figure it for yourself on how to improve upon it. That is the best way any individual can become a professtional trader.

Learning to trade is a combination of being exposed to ideas plus practical experience watching the markets on a day-to-day basis. This is not something that can happen in only a few weeks or months. On the other hand, you can become a great trader even with only average intelligence. Professional trader and money manager Russell Sands describes the makeup of a successful trader: "Intelligence alone does not make a great trader. Success is equal parts of intellect, applied psychology, practice, discipline, bankroll, self-understanding and emotional control."

Furthermore, to be successful you don't have to invent some complex approach that only a nuclear physicist could understand. In fact, successful trading plans tend to be simple. They follow the general principles of correct trading in a more or less unique way
Mathematical analysis of historical market price action has shown that price changes are primarily random. There is a small trend component in most price action, however. It is this trend ingredient that allows traders to make money . . . but only if they follow trends.

Those who try to anticipate changes in trend rather than follow establish trends are doomed to failure. In addition, with only a few exceptions, trying to find bargains by buying weakness and selling strength is likewise a prescription for eventual disaster.

You get more ideas for your money from books. But don't assume that just because someone famous has written a book, all the ideas in it actually work. One of the unknown reasons why so many traders lose is that most of what you read in books, what I call "the conventional wisdom of trading," doesn't work. You must be extremely skeptical about everything you read. Insist on a rigorous demonstration that when the ideas are applied continuously for many years, they lead to profits. You almost never find this kind of proof in books.
TRADERJI
Trading is much like learning a risky sport, such as motocross, skateboarding, or skiing. In these sports, you play by yourself and try to stretch the limits. But if you try to perform beyond your skill level, you'll get hurt. If you try to make a jump before you even know how to maneuver around basic obstacles, in all likelihood, you'll fail when you make an attempt. It's better to take it slowly. Build up your skills through practice and preparation before trying something too difficult. This is a commonsense approach, but when it comes to trading, few follow it. It's as if they are thinking, "That doesn't look very hard. What can go wrong?" A lot can go wrong, however. If you risk too much money without taking proper precautions, you can take a substantial hit to your account, and be unable to recover. As with many things in life, it is wise to take slow, easy steps before taking a big risk and falling hard.
Success in trading depends upon hardware, software, trading strategy and last but not the least money management.

Managing money requires more skill than making it.

Risk in the market comes from what you don't know.

Mans most powerful discovery- Compound Interest It is never your thinking that makes big money, it is sitting.

When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can be disastrous.

Money is made more due to understanding rather than information.

It is better to have a hen tomorrow, than an egg today.

The probability of outsized returns goes up, as the size of portfolio goes down.

Concentrate investments in a few great stocks and have fortitude to hold through price
fluctuations. Never leverage your focused portfolio.

Focus on what business will do in the years ahead instead of money managers in the days ahead.

Secret of sound investment is margin of safety
MOTILAL OSWAL
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
There are old traders and there are bold traders, but no old and bold traders.(Old is not gold here, it seems)

Traders know the price of everything and value of nothing,

Short term transactions frequently act as invisible foot, kicking society in the shin.

Timing is vital. It is much more important to buy cheap than to sell dear.

Behave according to what is rational rather than what is fashionable.

People tend to overreact to bad news and react slowly to good news.

Nobody gets market timing right even half the time.

When the gap between perception and reality is maximum, price is the best.

Stock will move above or below its business value depending more on emotions than economics.

When the degree of consensus was the greatest, the extent of error was the most pronounced.

One of the hardest things to imagine is that you are not smarter than average.

Group consensus can be so powerful that it erases critical past experience and common sense.

Passion is more powerful than brain power.

Disregard majority opinion; it is probably wrong.
QUOTE FROM MOTILAL ABOUT TRADING
INVESTING

Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful, when others are greedy.

Four most dangerous words in investing- “It is different this time”

Great (Idea+Manager+Price)= Great investment results.

True investors realize that ‘get rich quick’ usually means ‘get poor quicker’

Savings will not make you rich, only canny investments do that.

Wealth creation is the art of buying a rupee for 40 paise.

Own not the most, but the best.

Investing without research is like playing pocker without looking at the cards.

It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.

The definition of a great company is one that will remain great for many, many years.

Focus on return on equity, not on earning per share.

Business growth per se tells little about value.

The secret of long-term investment success is benign neglect. Don’t try too hard. Much success can be attributed in inactivity.

Value of analysis diminishes, as element of chance increases.

The time to get interested in a stock is when no one else is.

An investor’s worst enemy is not the stock market but his own emotions.

There is no formula to figure out the intrinsic value of a stock. You have to know the business.

Temperament costs investors more than ignorance
In Investment, understanding is more important than information

MOTILAL
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Managing risks is in many ways the foundation of the entire process. Managing risk comes down to two things. First is how you are going to place your stops. That goes back to cutting your losses short. Consider trading as a business venture. Managing risk means recognizing what the costs of trading are. Make a comprehensive plan. Winning traders always treat their trading like a game, but they also look at the whole thing as a money-making business. – GLEN RING


Most aspiring traders underestimate the time, work, and money required to become successful. To succeed as a trader, one needs complete commitment. Just as in any entrepreneurial venture, you must have a solid business plan, adequate financing, and a willingness to work long hours. Those seeking shortcuts are doomed to failure. And even if you do everything right, you should still expect to, lose money during the first five years – losses that I view as tuition payments to be made to the school of trading. These are cold, hard facts that many would-be traders prefer not to hear or believe, but ignoring them doesn’t change the reality. – MARK D COOK
Consistent success is difficult to achieve because the trading environment differs in almost every way from the environment in which we live our everyday lives. For example, in our everyday lives our fears help us avoid unpleasant or painful experiences. In the trading environment, fear colors our perception of market information thereby influencing our actions. As incredible it may sound, fear of making a mistake, losing money or missing an opportunity, will actually cause us to create the very experiences we are trying to avoid. Consistency as a trader does not depend upon your knowledge of market behaviour, but rather upon a very unique mind-set. – MARK DOUGLAS


We know that the random element in the market represents at least 40 to 60 percent activity. Therefore, it’s not logical to look at every tick or to think that every tick or every chart formation has meaning. They don’t. There are too many traders trying to look at the markets from too stringent an analytical viewpoint. Most of what happens in the markets is meaningless. Why try to interpret every little movement, every little reversal, every little tick? In trying to do too much, they’re actually paying too much attention to the market. You have to keep a distance from the market. Only then will you have the psychological resources to let your profits ride. You won’t be looking at every tick and interpreting it in a fearful way. – JAKE BERNSTEIN
coursey sh50
.....................Market Volatility

Market volatility changes can warn of impending trend changes in price. Option and futures premiums increase due to an increase in volatility. There are two major Indices that track volatility. The first is the VIX or Volatility Index. Developed in 1993, the CBOE's volatility index is a measure of volatility of the US equity market. The VIX is calculated by taking the weighted average of the implied volatilities of eight OEX calls and puts with an average time to maturity of 30 days. Most often it is considered a contrarian indicator, where high reading are considered oversold territory and low readings are overbought. Notice as well that volatility measures often move inversely to the price trend of major indices.

Rising volatility often confirms expectation of declining markets and corresponds with downward moving prices. Falling volatility often accompanies rising markets and supports a bullish outlook in near term. These are only indications but can be used to help build supporting evidence of price trend. A confirming VIX reading supports price trend indications present in the markets. A VIX that is not confirming price trend may suggest that the price trend is suspect.

The second measure of volatility found in the market place is the CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index. One use in tracking volatility for option traders is in recalculating option price projections based on projected changes in volatility. Determining the current volatility and extrapolating future possible values of volatility allows option traders to use option pricing systems like the Black Schoels to calculate possible price projections for an option given an expected volatility.

A declining volatility level over time suggest that bullish sentiment exists in the markets for the longer term price trend. A rising volatility level over time carries bearish sentiment. Tracking volatility allows a glimpse of what traders feel are the possibilities of price trend in the near term. Falling values in volatility suggest a bullish bias. Rising volatility levels suggest a bearish bias.

Take a look
Volatility usually moves inversely to price trends

cv
One important reason 95 percent of traders eventually lose is that they are too lazy to do the work it takes to be successful. Another reason is that they have no plan or method. They are guessing, gambling and hoping.

Trading in the stock markets one of the most difficult endeavors there is
traderji
(i) Trading on break out from Patterns
(ii) Trading in overbought/ oversold zone
(iii) Trading at support and resistance level
(iv) Trading at breaking of trend lines
(v) Trading at the percentage retracement.
(vi) Trading while making the use of gaps
(vii) Trading on negative and positive divergences

I think this forms a good broad summary about when to trade. Is there any other category, traderji? Getting out of traders would also involve all the above?

In the case of breakouts, one has to keep the 3% filter in mind apart from volume. I think with the exception of Gaps and to a lesser degree, percentage retracements, others have been covered. Any dos and don’ts, finer points or points to be kept in mind would be welcome. It is better to have them at one place rather than scattered in different posts.
Trading is a probability game so one should make sure that the odds are in one's favour before making a trade. This can be done by using a confirming indicator like volume
OBV- On Balance Volume is a running total of volume. It seeks to show if volume is flowing into or out of a security. When the security closes higher than the previous close, all of the day's volume is considered up-volume. When the security closes lower than the previous close, all of the day's volume is considered down-volume.

Accumulation/Distribution- A portion of each day's volume is added or subtracted from a cumulative total. The nearer the closing price is to the high for the day, the more volume added to the cumulative total. The nearer the closing price is to the low for the day, the more volume subtracted from the cumulative total. If the close is exactly between the high and low prices, nothing is added to the cumulative total.

Chakin’s oscillator-The closer a stock or average closes to its high, the more accumulation there was. Conversely, if a stock closes below its midpoint for the day, there was distribution on that day. The closer a stock closes to its low, the more distribution there was.

Chaikin Money Flow -Developed by Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Money Flow oscillator is calculated from the daily readings of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. market strength is usually accompanied by prices closing in the upper half of their daily range with increasing volume. Likewise, market weakness is usually accompanied by prices closing in the lower half of their daily range with increasing volume.

In all of the above one is supposed to compare the volume advances/declines to prices though in chakin oscillator, one can look for divergences with A/D lines. It is obvious from the above that the accumulation distriubution was an improvement on obv which in and Chakin’s oscillator an improvement on Accumulation/distribution
The money flow index is like the RSI of volume

Volume oscillator is like the price oscillator:-

In rallies vo should rise. When it reverses from obt condition, indicative of some correction. When prices move sideways or decline, volume shld contract. The difference between V and P Osc is that an obt V reading can be and often is associated with an oversold mkt. Volume expands during a selling climax. It is a well known technical characteristic that an increase in price associated with declining volume is bearish.

Since volume precedes price and everything depends on volume for all practical purposes, hope more knowledgeable people will make handsome value additions
sh50
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
“The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth.”


“The markets offer many opportunities to self destruct without a safety net. Every trader tries to hit others. Every trader gets hit by others. The trading highway is littered with wrecks. Trading is the most dangerous human endeavour, short of war “.

“Trading is a minus sum game. Winners receive less than the losers lose because the industry drains money from the market. Better than average is not good enough. You have to be head and shoulders above the crowd to win a minus sum game “

“All losers knocked out of the game by a string of losses or a singly abysmally made trade. No matter how a good his system is, a streak of bad trades is sure to put the loser out of business. “

““A professional trader cannot afford illusions.””

Some people have been critical of my criticizing seminars in the earlier post. Well, in my view seminar may be good to finetune if you already have good professional trading experience or you are an engineer with good spatial intelligence and programming background. As can be seen above one cannot afford not being thorough.Now I want to mention a constructive alternative in a new software I discovered.

It would not be out of place to mention here that Ashish who despite all his intelligence and all those promotions had to be trained in practical accounts both by me and the accountant since he had no exposure to that. Some of the mistakes he was making were in the nature of “A small spark catches a big fire” “ A small leak can sink a big ship” and could have cost him his job. So no matter what the qualifications and intelligence, there are some things only practical experience under the right mentor can teach.

The Stocks and commodities people sent me a sample( their August’2004) issue. In that issue, one MBA from Harvard who gave up his real estate business to become a very successful options trader says,” If someone wants to be successful, they should follow somebody else who has done the same thing. If I am trading, I must find somebody who is good at it. If I want to become a restaurant manager, I need to find somebody who’s done it before and done it well. “ . This new software is very effective for that. It seems like a pygmy compared to Metastock/ Tradestation but from learning and economics point of view is a giant which I why I had to give so many examples above.

The Seminar people are competent and knowledgeable but to transfer that knowledge to a rookie is a different ballgame altogether. I seem to have bumped into a good alternative.
Before I mention it, I would like to say that when you learn to know how to drive a car, all you have to know is the basic functions of what clutch, accelerator, brake, gear etc is and start driving. Otherwise with something like free knowledge on the internet available, if you get too lost into theory and start reading about cars, you may end up more confused. Technical analysis is very dangerous that way with the multiplicity of websites and indicators available which do not always indicate what they are supposed to indicate
Market Facilitation Index comes pretty close.It was developed by Bill Williams of trading chaos.Along with the paint bar studies of fake,squat etc they actually make a very good indicator though not a perfect one.A few of the useful one I find[cv]
All indicators have their own weakness and strength. Generally a complete trading system compromises of a set of indicators.

As I like to trade trends and in the direction of trends I think the single most robust and important indicator for me is the "moving average"! It helps me to visually identify trends at a single glance.
traderji
The Tape Reader, on the other hand, from his perch at the ticker, enjoys a bird's eye view of the whole field. When serious weakness develops in any quarter, he is quick to note, weigh and act.

Another advantage in favor of the Tape Reader: The tape tells the news minutes, hours and days before the news tickers, or newspapers, and before it can become gossip. Everything, from a foreign war to the passing of a dividend; from a Supreme Court decision to the ravages of the boll-weevil is reflected primarily upon the tape.

The insider who knows a dividend is to be jumped from 6 percent to 10 percent shows his hand on the tape when he starts to accumulate the stock, and the investor with 100 shares to sell makes his fractional impress upon the market price.

The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends entirely upon the forces which come in contact with its hub and tread. Even when the contact is broken, and nothing remains to affect its course, the wheel retains a certain impulse from the most recent dominating force, and revolves until it comes to a standstill or is subjected to other influences.

The element of manipulation need not discourage any one. Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady "clump, clump," as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and the quantities of stock appearing on the tape. Little fellows are at liberty to tiptoe wherever the footprints lead, but they must be careful that the giants do not turn quickly.

The Tape Reader has many advantages over the long swing operator. He never ventures far from the shore; that is, he plays with a close stop, never laying himself open to a large loss. Accidents or catastrophes cannot seriously injure him because he can reverse his position in an instant, and follow the newly-formed stream from source to mouth. As his position on either the long or short side is confirmed and emphasized, he increases his line, thus following up the advantage gained."

This is the objective of the Tape Reader - to make an average profit. In a month's operations he may make $4,000 and lose $3,000 - a net profit of $1,000 to show for his work. If he can keep this average up, trading in 100-share lots, throughout a year, he has only to increase his unit to 200, 300, and 500 shares or more, and the results will be tremendous.

The amount of capital or the size of the order is of secondary importance to this question: Can you trade in and out of all kinds of markets and show an average profit over losses, commissions, etc.? If so, you are proficient in the art. If you can trade with only a small average loss per day, or come out even, you are rapidly getting there.

A Tape Reader abhors information and follows a definite and thoroughly tested plan, which, after months and years of practice, becomes second nature to him. His mind forms habits which operate automatically in guiding his market ventures.

Long practice will make the Tape Reader just as proficient in forecasting stock market events, but his intuition will be reinforced by logic, reason, and analysis.

Here we find the characteristics which distinguish the Tape Reader from the Scalper. The latter is essentially one who tries to grab a point or two profit "without rhyme or reason" - he don't care how, so long as he gets it. A Scalper will trade on a tip, a look, a guess, a hearsay, on what he thinks or what a friend of a friend of Morgan's says.

The Tape Reader evolves himself into an automaton which takes note of a situation, weighs it, decides upon a course and gives an order. There is no quickening of the pulse, no nerves, no hopes or fears. The result produces neither.

He must study the various swings and know where the market and the various stocks stand: must recognize the inherent weakness or strength in prices; understand the basis or logic of movements. He should recognize the turning points of themarket; see in his mind's eye what is happening on the floor. He must have the nerve to stand a series of losses: persistence to keep him at the work during adverse periods; self-control to avoid overtrading; a phlegmatic disposition to ballast and balance him at all times.

For perfect concentration as a protection from the tips, gossip and other influences which abound in a broker's office, he should, if possible, seclude himself. A small room with a ticker, a desk and private telephone connection with his broker's office are all the facilities required. The work requires such delicate balance of the faculties that the slightest influence either way may throw the result against the trader. He may say: "Nothing influences me," but unconsciously it does affect his judgment to know that another man is bearish at a point when he thinks stocks should be bought. The mere thought, "He may be right," has a deterrent influence upon him; he hesitates; the opportunity is lost. No matter how the market goes from that point, he has missed a cog and his mental machinery is thrown out of gear."

Having thus described our ideal Tape Reader in a general way, let us inquire into some of the requisite qualifications.

First, he must be absolutely self-reliant. A dependent person, whose judgment hangs upon that of others, will find himself swayed by a thousand outside influences. At critical points his judgment will be useless. He must be able to say: "The facts are these; the resulting indications are these; therefore I will do thus and so."

Next, he must be familiar with the technicalities of the market, so that every little incident affecting prices will be given due weight. He should know the history, earnings and financial condition of the companies in whose stock he is trading; the ways of the manipulators; the different kinds of markets; be able to measure the effect of news and rumors; know when and in what stocks it is best to trade; measure the forces behind them; know when to cut a loss and take a profit. Silence, therefore, is a much-needed lubricant to the Tape Readers mind.

The advisability of having even a news ticker in the room is a subject for discussion. The tape tells the present and future of the market. On the other hand, the news ticker records what has happened. It announces the cause for the effect which has already been more or less felt in the market.

Money is made in Tape Reading by anticipating what is coming - not by waiting till it happens and going with the crowd.

The effect of news is an entirely different proposition. Considerable light is thrown on the technical strength or weakness of the market and special stocks by their action in the face of important news. For the moment it seems to us that a news ticker might be admitted to the sanctum, provided its whispering are given only the weight to which they are entitled.

To evolve a practical method - one which any trader may use in his daily operations and which those with varying proficiency in the art of Tape Reading will find of value of assistance - such is the task we have set before us in this series.

--Clif Droke
Strictly defined, tape reading is the practice of interpreting price-to-volume configurations of listed securities on the various stock exchanges. Since trading volume is an extremely important (and frequently overlooked) element of stock trading, a major premise of tape reading is that buying and selling interest can most readily be identified and measured by looking at a stock's volume at any given time in relation to its trading range. In classical tape reading, price and volume are given equal weighting and each element can never be analyzed without the other.
An old Wall Street axiom, which you are no doubt familiar with, is that "the tape tells all." It simply means that any available information that will have an impact on the outlook for stocks, and for the economy as a whole, will be reflected in advance in the tape. This is because the people who have the greatest insight into "inside events" are sure to try to profit from their advanced knowledge by buying or selling stocks before such information trickles down to the public. By the time news of an important financial or political event reaches the trading public, the insiders who are savvy to the ways of the market, have already taken their profits, leaving the public holding the "bag." Most of us will never have the advantage of being insiders; however, with a firm knowledge of tape reading this isn't necessary to profit from the market. In fact, being able to read the tape means that you can trade right along with the insiders and participate in big moves before the trading public catches wind of what is going on. In order to provide you with a better idea of the basics of tape reading, we have excerpted below several paragraphs from the all-time classic book on tape reading, "Studies in Tape Reading," written in 1910 by Richard D. Wyckoff. Don't let the date discourage you from reading it - it is just as timely today as it was nearly 100 years ago:
The science of determining from the tape the immediate trend of prices.

It is a method of forecasting, from what appears on the tape now, what is likely to appear in the future.

Tape Reading is rapid-fire horse sense. Its object is to determine whether stocks are being accumulated or distributed, marked up or down, or whether they are neglected by the large interests. The Tape Reader aims to make deductions from each succeeding transaction - every shift of the market kaleidoscope to grasp a new situation, force it, lightning-like, through the weighing machine of the brain, and to reach a decision which can be acted with coolness and precision.

It is gauging the momentary supply and demand in particular stocks and in the whole market, comparing the forces behind each and their relationship, each to the other and to all.

The Tape Reader is like the manager of a department store; into his office are poured hundreds of reports of sales made by the various departments. He notes the general trend of business, whether demand is heavy or light throughout the store, but lends special attention to the lines in which demand is abnormally strong or weak. When he finds difficulty in keeping his shelves full in a certain department, he instructs his buyers, and they increase their buying orders; when certain goods do not move he knows there is little demand (market) for them; therefore, he lowers his prices as an inducement to possible purchases.

A floor trader who stands in one crowd all day is like the buyer for one department - he sees more quickly than anyone else the demand for that class of goods, but has no way of comparing it to that prevailing in other parts of the store.

He may be trading on the long side of Union Pacific, which has a strong upward trend, when suddenly a break in another stock will demoralize the market in Union Pacific, and he will be forced to compete with others who have stocks to sell.

sh50
Five minute bar charts are used by day traders, hourly or daily by swing traders, weekly charts by investors."

How exactly does the investor use the weekly chart? Should he see that the price is above the 30 week moving average or greater than 200DMA in the daily chart? What else should he see? Any oscillator? Looking at it one way, investing is nothing but trading on primary, isn't it?

"Monthly and weekly charts are chiefly used for determining important support and resistance levels and making long-term trends" How exactly does one use them?

During intra-day trading, I learnt that one is supposed to use end of day charts to mark support and resistance and see whether or not they are penetrated during the day.

Simmilarly are the supports and resistances marked on weekly charts monitored non a daily basis for end of day trading-whether they are penetrated or not?

Monthly charts are strictly for primary trend I suppose but they seem quite useless for end of day trading.
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The significance of the weekly and/or monthly charts are important when one wants to trade in the direction of the primary trend.

You can read more on Multiple Time Frame
__________________The same idea applies if you are trading any security on a daily basis, in which case, the weekly bars will be the basis for the trend as well as the important support and resistance points”

What does the word daily imply here- end of day or intraday. I would presume end of day. In Intra day I was taught to use end of day resistances and supports and see whether the intra day priced crossed them or not?

How does Technical analysis help an investor when one says that "fundamentals tell you what to buy and technicals when to buy.and sell?” I know about the price being greater or less than the 200 moving average.Can you add to that ? If one had a delivery of a few stocks, what all one should see?
TREND is the single most important factor to watch out for. If the trend is UP one can go long or hold on to their long positions. Once the trend turns down one should be out of their long positions and go short.

Trading with the trend is hard to do because a logical give-up exit point will be farther away, potentially causing a larger loss if you are wrong. This is a good example of why so few traders are successful. They can't bring themselves to trade in a psychologically difficult way.

When you trade in the direction of a trend, you are truly following the markets rather than predicting them. Most unsuccessful traders spend their entire careers looking for better ways to predict the markets.
Basically you see a higher market time frame( say end of day supports and resistances) and see whether they are penetrated or not in intra-day, isn't it? Similarly weekly Supports and resistances are penetrated end of day or not?

Please be specific on how an investor can use Technical analysis
It is much easier to see the major trend using weekly data, find the short-term direction on daily data, and time your entry using hourly bar

When the weekly trend is up, daily declines point to buying opportunities. When weekly trend is down, daily rallies point to shorting opportunities.
The problem with daily charts if u r trading intraday is that u get to look too far back.With weekly one it gets prehistoric i feel.
Lets look at an example
If say I have a system for daily bars and i use a trailing stop to lock in the profits after say 3% of opposite move.If the market moves higher then our trailing stop moves higher.This sounds good theoretically but this stop mechanism needs to know what occurred first—the high or the low of the day; did the market open and then move higher and pull our trailing stop up and then move down and stop us out? Or did the market first move down and stop us out and then move up and make new highs? This type of information cannot be discerned from a daily bar.
The point i am trying to make is that daily and weekly charts give u a very unrealistic feel while trading intraday.Ofcourse they r useful to determine long term trend and key levels but they have serious limitations.
Also many people overlook the importance of intraday historical data.Fibonacci traders know this well while drawing retracement levels.The retracement levels are completely different when drawn on different time frames.
I figured out a year ago that systems backtested,optimized and curve fitted on daily bars look very rosy and show excellent performance but when they are tested on intraday bars which is when u actually trade the performance deteriorates considerably.It was very painful to watch all the work go down the drain.
Weekly charts are useful and u wil also see that many indicators actually show good performance in them but for intraday traders like me they dont offer much.If u r a investor then weekly charts are definitely for u but not otherwiseSo what is the right time frame for you? Well, it all depends on your personality.

You have to feel comfortable with the time frame you are trading in. You have to feel at home with that time frame. There is always a degree of pressure when you trade because there is the real potential for loss or gain and that will effect you to some degree. You should however not feel that the reason you are feeling pressure or frustration is because things are happening so fast that you find it difficult to make decisions or so slowly that you get frustrated.

The question is if you could make the same amount of money trading any time frame which time frame would you choose. You will of course have to take into consideration that the time frame you choose does generate enough trading opportunities for you to be happy with the results.

It is also worth noting that if your trading is going well and you are profitable then don't even think about changing time frames. As the saying goes ''if it ain't broke don't fix it.''

When you do eventually find the time frame you are happy with you can then start looking at multiple time frames to help your analysis of the market.
It is much easier to see the major trend using daily data, find the short-term direction on hourly data, and time your entry using five or ten minute bar. Hope this is corrrect. I have not done much day trading.

When the daily trend is up, hourly declines point to buying opportunities. When daily trend is down, hourly rallies point to shorting opportunities.

What about position trading. Monthly charts are too long term? Isn't swing trading a kind of postion trading only although there are three main categories-day,swing and position.
normally i operate based on trend positions. s1, s2, previous closing, current opening, r1,r2. I found the first one hour either the graph zooms up and comes down or declines and rises. around 12.30 or so the real trend starts. by1.45 the picture becomes clear. definitely by 2.50pm you can see what is going to happen. either r2 is crossed or s2 is over. this is the time to make quick money. for example yesterday (16th nov) around 2.50pm i noticed hsbc moving up and up and up. around 3.20 fell a little bit.
When deciding on a trade or investment, be it short, intermediate or long term, multiple time frame analysis can help clear the noise and offer a balanced view. Multiple time frame analysis!?! It sounds complicated and fancy, but it simply refers to the same chart with more than one time compression (e.g. daily or weekly). When both the weekly and the daily charts are in harmony, the chances of success can be greatly enhanced.
The essence of the strategy is easy: Use the higher time frame price activity to define the tradable trend as well as potential support and resistance levels.
Markets exist in several time frames simultaneously. They exist on a 10 minute chart, an hourly chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart, and any other chart. Traders often feel confused when they look at charts in different time frames and they see the markets going in several directions at once.
The market may look for a buy on a daily chart and a sell on the weekly chart, and vice versa. The signals in different time frames of the same market often contradict one another. Which of them will you follow? Most traders pick one time frame and close their eyes to others – until a sudden move outside of “their” time frame hits them.
Daily charts are great, but participants can get caught up in the move of the moment. Even though daily charts can contain random movements, they do have their strengths. Once an underlying trend is identified, daily charts can be useful to pick entry and exit points. On the other hand, weekly charts filter out the random movements and can help identify the stronger under currents that are driving the price.
The same idea applies if you are trading any security on a daily basis, in which case, the weekly bars will be the basis for the trend as well as the important support and resistance points. That is the foundation of multiple time frame trading. Besides the effectiveness of using a method based on a multiple time frame approach, another advantage is the method need not be complicated. A trader can make his or her method as simple or as complicated as desired. For me, though, the simpler the application, the better the results.
The proper way to analyze any market is to analyze it in at least two or three time frames. If you analyze daily charts, you must first examine the weekly charts and so on. This search for greater perspective is one of the key principles of the Traders Edge Trading System.
Look at the daily chart of HFCL below. What does it tell you. Most traders would say that it is just the beginning of another uptrend. Well, most traders are not successful! To be successful in trading any market, one has to first examine the trend on a higher time frame.
compilation of sh50
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
some more collection
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Emotions Generated by Trading By Bennett McDowell,

As traders, we not only have to develop technical trading skills but also the emotional skills to trade successfully.

Emotional skills help the trader get through equity draw-down periods and multiple, consecutive trading losses that ALL trading systems experience if traded long enough. These tough events in trading will test the emotional fortitude of any trader.

This is where confidence in your tested trading system and trading with money you can afford to risk will play an important role. If the trader did not test his or her trading system, how do you think that trader will feel after four consecutive losses totaling approximately 8 percent of the trading accounts equity?

Now, compound this with the fact that it is not money this trader can afford to lose. And, compound this again if the person is day trading and losing 8 percent in one day! And, the 8 percent assumes that you are controlling your risk so that each loss is only a net maximum of 2 percent per loss.

Now, after all this, do you think the trader will feel anxiety and stress? I think so! Do you think that stress will create a good environment for successful trading? I think not! Do you think the trader will be afraid of taking another trade for fear of another possible loss? Perhaps it might because this kind of stress can cause the trader to second guess him or herself and the trading system, whatever it is. Traders who trade with confidence will keep trading and not second guess themselves OR their trading system.
As a trader you want to eliminate any and all emotions while trading. This even includes emotions generated by having too many market opinions. Emotions never help the trader! Keep emotions in your personal life and away from your trading life.

The best way to keep emotions in check is by creating a stress-free trading environment where you accept equity draw-down periods and can keep trading through them in a stress-free state. You do this by testing your trading system or approach

In my opinion, the best testing method is to paper trade for a long enough time that you come to know the best, and the worst, that your trading system produces. Paper trading (again, in my opinion) is better than computer back testing because it represents how YOU are actually trading the system or approach. Yet, its in a stress-free environment because no real money is being used.

I always tell traders, that, if they are not profitable paper trading, they will not be profitable trading with real money. In other words, they are not ready to actually trade! It is far better to know that you are not yet ready then to jump in head first and lose your shirt!

So, the first step in getting a handle on your emotions is to create a stress-free trading environment that provides a solid foundation for you to apply your trading skills and, then, access how you are doing. If youre the one creating your stressful trading environment, you are short-changing yourself before you ever even start actually trading

About Volume and Stock Markets

Stock Volume is the daily number of shares of a security that change hands between a buyer and a seller.

It is simply the amount of shares that trade hands from sellers to buyers as a measure of activity. If a buyer of a stock purchases 100 shares from a seller then the volume for that period increases by 100 shares based on that transaction.

Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis as it used to measure the worth of a market move. If the markets have made strong price move either up or down the perceived strength of that move depends on the volume for that period. The higher the volume during that price move the more significant the move.

Volume is a trader's best friend. Few technical indicators give the experienced trader a better feel for the minds of his fellow traders and investors. The heights of their greed, the depths of their fear, the loudness of their panic, and quietude of their ambivalence. All of these emotional states are seen with volume.
Volume also shows us the footprints of big money, and unlike footprints in the sand, these footprints are there for all to see...and long after the fact. More immediate and less ambiguous than any complex indicator, volume pinpoints extreme tops and bottoms -or the areas of them- with amazing accuracy.

Additionally, unlike many indicators, volume is applicable to every timeframe. How can this be? Simple. Volume is simply a measure of sentiment, of human nature. And fortunately for us, human nature is the one ever-present constant of the stock market. Never forget that fact. Once you have your own emotions under control as a trader, knowledge of this profound fact will guide you ever after as reliably as the Northern Star guides a lone sailor across a vast sea.

Why is volume a trader's best friend.

Volume offers a complete picture of the market.

Volume can help determine the health of an existing trend.

Specialty volume for indexes and volume-based technical analysis are very good indicators for predicting index shifts.

Volume is the indication of supply and demand. It's defined as the number of units traded during a time period. This number is significant in that it supports the prevailing price trend.

The technical analysis of volume is a basic yet very important element of market timing strategy. Volume provides clues as to the intensity of a given price movement.

Minute-by-minute trading volume shows the reversal points of the market, and therefore when to buy and sell!

Currently when a change in sentiment occurs in the market, most people dont find out until it is too late. This can be costly to an investor. Trading volume offers investors an invaluable tool to know when and where a change in sentiment is going to occur, and act accordingly.

Intraday volume helps you see where a stock is being repeatedly bought as it dips. Likewise, towards the end of a rally, a wide volume spike often signals that the move is at an end, at least short-term. If you weren't aware of it before, you should be starting to see why volume is a trader's best friend.

On-Balance Volume (OBV)
Devised by Joseph Granville, on-balance volume is a running total, which rises or falls every trading day, based on whether prices close higher or lower than on the previous day. OBV is a leading indicator, so it typically rises or falls before that of the actual prices. A new OBV high indicates the power of bulls, the weakness of bears and the likely resultant rise of prices. A new OBV low indicates an opposite pattern: the power of bears, weakness of bulls and a possible decrease in value. When OBV shows a signal differing from that of actual prices, it indicates that volume (emotion of the market) is not consistent with consensus of value (actual prices) - a shift in price, which would alleviate this imbalance, is imminent.

Accumulation/Distribution (A/D)
Accumulation/distribution is also a leading indicator pertaining to volume, but it takes opening and closing prices into account. A positive A/D indicates that prices were higher when they closed than when they opened; a negative A/D indicates the opposite. But the bull or bear winners are only credited with a fraction of each day's volume, depending on the day's range and the distance from opening to closing price. Obviously, a wide range between open and close produces a stronger signal A/D, but the pattern of A/D highs and lows is most important. If a market opens higher and closes lower, thereby causing A/D to turn down, an upward-trending market may be weaker than it initially appears.

The significance of accumulation/distribution lies in its insight into the activities of the distinct groups of professional and amateur traders. Amateurs as a group are more likely to influence the opening price of the market since these amateurs base their first trades on the financial news they have read overnight as well as on the corporate news that was issued by their favorite companies after market close. But as the trading day wears on, the professionals determine the day's ultimate results. If the professionals disagree with the amateurs' bullishness at the open, the professionals will drive prices lower for the close. When the pros are more bullish than amateurs, the pros will drive prices higher all day and into the close. As indicators for future trends, the activities of professionals are generally more important than that of the amateurs.
#1 4th May 2005, 05:58 PM
Traderji
Super Moderator Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,652


The Two Realities of Trading

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The Two Realities of Trading

There are two realities every trader must understand and accept before she/he can actually start trading for a living!

1) It Is Impossible to Predict Market Turns

It has become very common in the financial markets for analysts or "experts" to offer their "outlook", or predictions for various markets. In fact, it has become so common that many traders just assume that if so many people claim to be able to predict the future action of the markets, then it must be possible. Nothing could be further from the truth.

There are two great emotions at work in the markets - fear and greed. However, contrary to conventional thinking, greed is not always manifested as a lustful longing or need to make money. Quite often it is manifested in the form of "hope". And what could give a trader more "hope" than the belief that he may be able to know in advance what a given market is going to do? But, think about it for a moment. Can you think of any other endeavor where people can actually predict the future?

In order to be a successful futures trader, you must learn not to rely on predictions and forecasts. It is possible to find a person or committee or indicator or wave count which will occasionally offer a prediction which actually comes true. However, the fact of the matter is that there is no person, committee, indicator, or wave count, etc. which can consistently and accurately predict tops and bottoms in any market. It is simply not possible to do so on a regular basis.

Once you free yourself of this notion, you open up your mind to the more important task of determining the current trend in a given market. In the long run, such knowledge will be much more useful than a thousand forecasts.

2) Losing Trades are a Natural Part of Trading

Novice traders have a great deal of trouble accepting the notion that losing trades are a "natural" part of trading. Yet, if you are actively "cutting your losses" on trades that don't go in your favor, a losing trade can actually be thought of as a positive step, because it is the act of consistently limiting your losses to a manageable amount which allows you to keep coming back to trade another day. While losing money on a given trade is not in itself a good thing, the very act of keeping each individual loss to a minimum is a necessary step in trading profitably over the long run.

When starting out, traders often shoot for a high percentage of winning trades, even though that generally means taking profits quickly and missing some big winners. More experienced traders come to realize that the percentage of trades which are winners is often a meaningless statistic. In the end, the only thing that counts is if the amount earned on winning trades exceed the amount lost on losing trades. As long as that is the case, it matters little if 3 out of 10 trades are profitable or if 7 out of 10 trades are profitable. The key is to make alot when you win and to lose a little when you lose.
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"The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts,while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities.Take medicine for example.Apatient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest-and the anxious family members have only two questions:"Will he survive?" and "when can he go home?"They ask the doctor for a forecast.
But the doctor is not forecasting-he is taking care of the problems as they emerge.His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock,and so he gives him pain killersand starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood.Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs.After that he has to watch against infection.He monitors the trend of a patient's health and takes measures to prevent complications.He is managing -not forecasting.When a family begs for a forecast,he may give it to them,but its practical value is low.
To make money trading,you do not need to forecast the future.You have to extract information from the market and find out whether bulls or bears are in control.You need to measure the strength of the dominant market group and decide how likey the current trend is to continue.You need to practice conservative money management aimed at long term survival and profit accumulation.You must observe how your mind works and avoid slipping into greed or fear.A trader who does all of this will succeed more than any forecaster.
My observations...

I have come to the conclusion that trading is not an exact science. You can't do X and get Y every time. It is as much an art as it is anything else. There is no magic formula. Trading is all about probability. It is the art of correctly applying a set of carefully thought out rules and allocating the probability of that event to result in success.

Each trade is an independent event. The market does not remember if you lost or made money the last time you traded.

The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.

Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.

Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.

.The two things I focus on in terms of method is always limiting risk/managing risk and compounding yield. We may agree on some of the strategies of entering and exiting trades, but the ONLY objective data i review and analyze is price, specifically macro price trends.

I'm just now getting into commodities with paper trades and have been able to translate my techniques from my stock and options trading with considerable success. But it requires patience and perseverance...an unattached, unwavering, unyielding, immovable determination. I liken it to the Terminator who in eveything he did, centered around negotiating the chief objective without vague, ambiguous, and oten eronious debate and reasoning. He was cold and calculating, always calculating mathematical probabilties as events unfolded. This is what I do and how I do it.

Others have their way, no doubt, but i find objective data and objective responses/reaction to be especially profitable and helpful in mitigating losses
An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don't feel every trade is a live or die situation.

The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.

Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!

Let me take this opportunity to congratulate you on a great attitude.Agree with you on all counts.......Forecasting ,having an opinion is great---great to write newsletters,great to present seminars,great to seem intelligent,great to make people feel one is an authority on the markets.Take a look at their records,one truly doubts if they are successful.The market is right...always right.The market is right when we think it should go in a particular direction.The market is right when it goes the other way.The market is never wrong.We are wrong if we went the wrong direction.One's opinion does not matter.To go with the flow of the market is everything........

Forecasting prevents vision.It prevents one from acting in the present because one's mind is rooted in the future.Once one is able to live in the present,one then gives up all resistance to the flow of the market.One then automatically takes stops and not go into hope mode.One then naturally lets the trade run with trail stops
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Exiting a trade

How not to loose too much of your trading capital.

Upon entering the trade, if you place a sell stop below the market if you're long (buy stop if you're short), you know right away how much money you will lose in any given trade. You should never trade without employing stops. Thus, you should never be in a trade and have a losing position and not know where your exit point is going to be.

How to lock in larger than normal PROFITS in a winning trade.

You should always stay with your profitable trades as long as possible because the trend is likely to continue and make your profits even larger.

This is easy to understand but not so easy to do when real money is involved. The difficulty is that although your profit may become much larger if you stay with a trade, it may also decrease and even disappear. Human nature is such that it values a sure profit much more highly than the probability of a much higher profit. Thus, traders are inclined to take their profits too soon which can be fatal to long-term success because big profits are necessary to overcome the inevitable collection of small losses.

There is a good way to let profits run while still guarding against the possibility that prices will turn around and take away much of your accumulated profits before the trend actually reverses. It is called a trailing stop. You include in your plan a method for moving an exit point along some distance behind your trade. As long as the trend keeps moving in your favor, you stay in the trade. If the market reverses direction by the amount of your trailing stop, you exit the trade at that point.

A trailing stop moves to lock in profits as the trade moves in the traders favour, it should never be moved backwards. There are many different ways to calculate a trailing stop:

Volatility - the stop is calculated as a percentage of the average true range of x periods.

Rupee Amount - A set amount determined before the trade is entered.

Channel breakout - exit a long position at the low of the last x bars.

Chart patterns - ie move the trailing stop behind each consolidation as it forms.
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Do you stay with your profitable trades as long as possible because the trend is likely to continue and make your profits even larger?

This is easy to understand but not so easy to do when real money is involved. The difficulty is that although your profit may become much larger if you stay with a trade, it may also decrease and even disappear. Human nature is such that it values a sure profit much more highly than the probability of a much higher profit. Thus, traders are inclined to take their profits too soon. This can be fatal to long-term success because big profits are necessary to overcome the inevitable collection of small losses.

There is a good way to let profits run while still guarding against the possibility that prices will turn around and take away much of your accumulated profits before the trend actually reverses. It is called a trailing stop. You include in your plan a method for moving an exit point along some distance behind your trade. As long as the trend keeps moving in your favor, you stay in the trade. If the market reverses direction by the amount of your trailing stop, you exit the trade at that point. You would also offset your trade and reverse position if the trend reversed.

One way to set a trailing stop is to protect a certain percentage of the accumulated profit. That will always insure that you keep some profit on a good trade.
__________________The holy grails of trading are as follows:

1)keep your bets small
2)cut your losses short
3)let your profits run
4)follow the above rules with out question.

traderjiMost traders ignore reward/risk ratios, hoping that luck will save them when things start to go bad.

This is probably the main reason so many of them are destined to fail. It's really dumb when you think about it, because reward/risk is the easiest way to get a definable edge on the market house.

The reward/risk equation builds a safety net around your open positions. It's designed to tell you how much can be won, or lost, on each trade you take. The secondary purpose is to remove emotion so you can focus squarely on the cold, hard numbers.

Let's look at 15 ways that reward/risk will improve your trading performance.

1. Every setup carries a directional probability that reflects a specific pattern. Always execute positions in the highest-odds direction. Exit your trades when a price fails to respond according to your expectations.

2. Every setup has a price level that violates the pattern. Only take trades where price needs to move a short distance to hit this "risk target." Look the other way and find the "reward target" at the next support or resistance level. Trade positions with the highest reward target to risk target ratios.

3. Markets move in trend and countertrend waves. Many traders panic during countertrends and exit good positions out of fear. After every trend in your favor, decide how much you're willing to give back when things turn against you

4. What you don't see will hurt you. Back up and look for past highs and lows your trade must pass through to get to the reward target. Each price level will present an obstacle that must be overcome.

5. Time impacts reward/risk as efficiently as price. Choose a holding period based on the distance from your entry to the reward target. Then use price and time for stop-loss management. Also use time to exit trades even when price stops haven't been hit.

6. Forgo marginal positions and wait for the best opportunities. Prepare to experience long periods of boredom between frantic surges of concentration. Expect to stand aside, wait and watch when the markets have nothing to offer.

7. Good setups come in various shades of gray. Analyze conflicting information and jump in when enough ducks line up in a row. Often the best thing to do is calculate how much you'll lose if you're wrong, and then take the trade.

8. Careful stock selection controls risk better than any stop-loss system. Realize that standing aside requires as much deliberation as an entry or an exit, and must be considered on every setup.

9. Every trader has a different risk tolerance. Follow your natural tendencies rather than chasing the crowd. If you can't sleep at night, you're trading over your head and need to cut your risk.

10. Never enter a position without knowing the exit. Trading is never a buy-and-hold exercise. Define your exit price in advance, and then stick to it when the stock gets there
11. Information doesn't equal profit. Charts evolve slowly from one setup to the next. In between, they emit noise in which elements of risk and reward conflict with each other.

12. Don't be fooled by beginner's luck. Trading longevity requires strict self-discipline. It's easy to make money for short periods of time. The markets will take back every penny until you develop a sound risk-management plan.

13. Enter positions at low risk and exit them at high risk. This often parallels to buying at support and selling at resistance, but it can also be used to trade momentum with safety and precision.

14. Look to exit in wild times in order to increase your reward. Wait for price acceleration and feed your position into the hungry hands of other traders just as the price pushes into a high-risk zone.

15. Manage risk on both sides of the trade. Focus on optimizing entry and exit points and specialize in single, direct price waves. Remember that the execution of low-risk entries into bad positions allows more flexibility than high-risk entries into good positions.
To survive as a professional trader/investor your risk (loss) per trade should not exceed 2% of your total trading capital.

And if you loose more than 10% of your total trading capital in one month, stop trading and re-evalute your strategy.
tradersedge
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
RECENTLY I FACE TRADING CATASTROPHY...not by trading BUT by holding losers..buy and is hold dead man....so like phoenix..i shall ....
reason ..cockiness...[as usual play of bridge & chess]...ya.. i can not handle...so the ship ruins with captain...STOP IS FOR SISSIES...any rational individual must stop self sabotage first,....before..he thinks to be a trader

so i open my material ...start copy paste...
Before you make any commitment to begin or even to
continue trading , we believe you must
honestly ask yourself; "Is stock trading for me?"

Many programs will tell you any one can make money on the
stock market and I guess technically they are right. But
the reality is, for most, failure is inevitable.

You see, the major limits to your success are placed
there by you. As we have pointed out, trading is a mind
game. So to a large extent your success is controlled by
your beliefs and actions.

We want to examine this issue in some detail because,
although at the moment you may be skeptical, it really is
the key to your success or failure.

Apart from inadequate capital and poor money management,
novice traders usually fail
lack of commitment
lack of knowledge
self-limiting beliefs
ego
poor state of mind
lack of focus
undisciplined
no strategy
failure to accept responsibility
lack of perseverance.

Traders who don't address these issues will not survive.
And the statistics show this to be true
Many novice traders get frustrated when they don't have
instant success. Without real commitment they will not do
what is necessary to achieve success.

Knowledge Lack of knowledge, which is a major cause of
failure, is a result of an individual's attitude. How
anyone thinks they can enter the stock market without
training amazes us. Yet it happens all the time. People
who accept that golf lessons are necessary before they head
out onto the course will start trading with little or no
knowledge
Most novice traders fail to appreciate the level of skill
needed to trade successfully. They have no system and
resort to guessing or the use of tips from friends. They
are effectively gambling, not trading.

At the same time, too much information can lead to
overload and inaction. It is far better to narrow your
focus and concentrate on just a portion of the market.


Beliefs Traders who do not have a positive belief system
or cannot reconcile their beliefs to the actions of the
market do not survive.

Self-doubt will destroy you as a trader. In particular,
it is critical that you do not tie your self-worth to your
actions in the market. Despite the emotional attachment
that you might feel, you must accept that whether one of
your trades proves to be profitable or not, it is not a
reflection of your value as a person.

Your success or failure in the market depends on your
thoughts and feelings.

Don't tie your self-worth to any individual trade
Remember that you always have a choice in the stock market.

Ego Ego is one of the greatest enemies to stock market
success.

Your ego needs to win all the time and wants to win now,
if not sooner. It can't stand being wrong. And so it
rationalizes events and denies reality.

You must be able to perceive the market how it is, not how
you want to believe it is. But it is difficult to clearly
see price action if your ego is in the way.

Ego makes us take small profits but large losses. It
argues that even a small profit is a win. But a loss hurts
and instead of accepting a small loss we try and get it back.

Men in particular are prone to say, "I'm going to make
back that $1000 loss, no matter how long it takes!"

Ego makes us sell stocks that go up and keep the ones that
go down. If a stock price increases there is immediate
gratification in being right so taking quick profits feels
good. And we won't sell the bad ones because we have then
made a loss
Do you see the logic here? We tell ourselves that we
haven't made a loss until we sell. So if we don't sell, we
can't make a loss!

State of Mind The stock market is an unusual environment.
It is a pressure cooker type atmosphere for those
unfamiliar with it and it can generate emotional and
irrational behavior.

The market is a large group of people trading their
perceptions. Throw lots of money into the equation and it
is not surprising how emotionally charged an environment it
can be. The power of group psychology and the mob
mentality ensures that irrational action is commonplace.

At a personal level, fear and greed are the primary
emotions at work. And stress and anxiety are common issues
that need to be dealt with.

Probably the strongest mindset with novice traders (and
many who have traded for a long time) is the fear of
failure - the fear of loss
Fear blinds us to opportunity. Greed blinds us to danger.

Have a healthy regard for the market but don't be
intimidated or fearful. Find a balance between confidence
and respect.

Everyone is afraid. It is how you respond to that fear
that determines whether you succeed.

If there was one topic that we would stress above
most others it is focus.

The ability to concentrate on the present moment to the
exclusion of other distractions is vital when you are
trading. And one of the great things about focus is that
fear and anxiety actually disappear when you are
concentrating on the task at hand.

Traders who don't learn how to focus will be continually
distracted and will find it hard to make decisions
To trade well you must learn to stay in the present moment.
Focus eliminates fear.

Discipline is so important in trading. You
need it to do the things that you have to do, even when you
might not want to. Such things as analysis; risk control;
money management and record keeping. All are critical and
all require discipline.

Discipline is also necessary to maintain focus and to
follow your trading system. Most importantly, it is
critical when you suffer a string of losses. As it is
discipline that will get you back on the horse

The vast majority of traders lose money not
because of their trading strategy but because of their lack
of discipline
There are no rules in the market. You have to develop
your own. And then follow them.

Strategy You need to find a trading system that works but,
more importantly, one that you trust and are comfortable
with. You then have to apply it and this is where
discipline comes in.

But the truth is that most novice traders concentrate on
this subject and particularly entry signals, far too much.
The reality is that good risk and money management backed
by a supportive belief system is far more important.

Don't get us wrong. Having a valid trading system is
critical to your success. Just don't fall into the common
trap of thinking that it is all you need
Your state of mind is more important to your success than
your trading system
It is you, not your system that will determine your success.

Responsibility
Your trading success is in your hands. It
is your responsibility, no-one else's.

Traders who don't accept this will fail. Because they
will always be blaming someone or something for their
mistakes and never learning from them
You are responsible for your success. No one else.

Perseverance Without action, knowledge is useless. Massive
action is the key to real success.

Many traders begin with great enthusiasm but become easily
disillusioned. Perseverance is required to get beyond this
stage and to start to reap the rewards.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
so i open again my material
........please understand, owning stock is
risky.

Holding onto a stock can be a very risky strategy.
Stock prices can move quickly and substantially to the
downside and can catch you out if you're not careful.
In fact the value of a stock can drop to zero! For
example, remember Enron?

And whilst stop losses can help protect you, they are not
foolproof. So the only way to really limit your risk is
to buy a very cheap stock (so that it can't fall very far).
But these are generally poor trading candidates because
they are erratic and have low liquidity.

So if you don't buy cheap stock, owning shares is also
quite expensive. You have to outlay thousands of dollars
to hold a reasonable amount. And so your involvement in
the market may be quite limited.

In addition, stock often doesn't move all that much. A
good trade might give you a 20% return. And this might
take several months. Given that some trades are going to
go against you, this doesn't provide
...............................
And finally, trading stock is limited. Most people are
only happy to trade stocks that are moving up. Short
selling (selling stocks that you expect to go down) is a
risky strategy and is a bit cumbersome. And sideways
markets cannot be traded.

So is there a better way?
Leverage - you can profit from a large amount of stock
for only small outlay.
2. Limited Risk - When you buy an option you know exactly
how much you are risking and it is only a fraction of
the cost of the actual share price. Great news I'm sure
you will agree?
Entry Doesn't Matter

Trade entry is not the most critical step in your trading plan.
Studies have indicated that random selection of trades matched with
strict money management can be quite successful.

Now, this is not to suggest that you shouldn't stack the odds further
in your favor by careful trade selection. Just realize that it is not
the most important step.

So choose a system or a combination of systems that appeals to you and
that you are comfortable with. And refine it over time as you gain
experience.

We have a strong preference, based on our experience. So we would
suggest that you give it consideration. But then add to it or
substitute with your own preference.

Market Cycles Markets tend to move in cycles. The problem is
identifying clearly what the time frame for these is and at what stage
the market is in the short-term.

W D Gann and Elliot Wave are the two main examples of cycle predicting
systems. You can find many proponents of both together with books and
software in a quick search of the internet.
Many traders are obsessive about market time cycles. We don't have the
patience for this. Whilst we are sure cycles exist and there have been
some significant predictions over the years, from a day to day trading
perspective, we believe they are pretty worthless.


We have looked at the work of WD Gann but could never get interested in
the complexity of his theories. He divided trends and time into
eighths,
with special importance placed on three-eighths (38%); 50% and
five-eighths (62%).

He also used various angles on charts and the squaring of price and
time
to predict future price levels. Many of his theories are intricate and
open to interpretation.

Wave theory stems from the work of RN Elliot who in turn was influenced
by the Dow Theory. Elliot believed that markets had well-defined waves
that can be used to predict price movement.

It is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci ratio. This
approach permits traders to assess where the market is currently in
comparison to the overall predicted market movement.

For example, retracement levels are set at 38% and 62%. They can also
be
used as target levels for potential reversals. Interestingly these
percentages match Gann's analysis. And for that reason alone they are
worthy of consideration.

But whilst this is a fascinating area, our suggestion to the novice
trader is to forget about them for the moment. Just concentrate on
understanding price action until you feel the need to expand your
focusMarket cycles are very complex and of little value as a predictive
tool.
Novice traders should ignore them
News Some traders rely on news events to select stocks. They look for
significant announcements that they believe will affect either the
whole
market or a particular sector or stock.

The basic problem with this approach is that the market generally
anticipates rather than reacts to news. By this we mean that the stock
market is always looking forward and trying to predict what is going to
happen. And so the market has already factored the news into the
current price of the stock.

By the time the news is released the smart money has already moved on.

The other fact to realize is that news usually causes only one movement
of price. If this occurs before the actual news announcement, as a
result of rumors and expectations, then it is unlikely to be repeated
after the announcement.

Stated in another way, the actual news event is of little importance.
It is how the market anticipates or reacts to the event that matters
and that we can't know.

We therefore have no way of determining what influence news might
have or whether it is already priced into the stock. In addition,
news is not detailed enough for short term trading.

Never make a trading decision based solely on news
But there are some instances when news can have a significant and
immediate impact on the stock market. This is because the news events
were not anticipated.

Catastrophic news events are significant because they are unpredictable
and they affect sentiment.

Because these sort of news events cannot be anticipated, the market has
an immediate reaction. And whilst the direction of the move can often
be predicted, the extent of the move is very difficult to estimate.

So they are not particularly useful as a trading tool. But if you are
in a trade they are important signals for you to take appropriate
action.

But if cycles and news are not of much use, what can we use to narrow
down our trading selections? Traders generally use one of the
techniques
known as fundamental or technical analysis or a combination of the two
Fundamental analysis is a method of analyzing a stock through primary
economic data.

The analysis includes the study of the general economy; the industry
sector in question and information about the company itself. It
requires
an assessment of the financial and physical factors that may affect a
company's performance.

This information is analyzed and compared with the sectors performance
and then a decision is made about whether the company's stock price
indicates it is over or undervalued.

If this sounds like a convoluted process it is.

And whilst computer programs can simplify the analysis process, it is
still a subjective analysis in many ways. And the selection of criteria
is in many ways quite arbitrary.

But more importantly, it is not a particularly accurate measure of a
stocks price movement, particularly in the short term. The implication
is that price reflects the fundamental value of a company.

This is simply not true! Stock prices often have no relationship to a
company's fundamental economic data.

And the best example of this is the dot.com boom. During this time
many company's stock price bore no resemblance to the fundamental
value of the stock or to its future earning potential.

And the reason for this is that stock prices reflect sentiment not
economic theory. Traders don't always act rationally and it is people
that cause prices to move, not theoretical models.

So whilst fundamental analysis may provide a theoretical stock value
it is the sentiment of the market participants that sets the actual
price
So even though a fundamental analysis of prices may prove accurate in
the long term, the current price is a reflection of the current view
of all the people trading the stock. They may or may not change their
minds over time to more closely match the theoretical price. But at
the moment their view is different.

We don't know if the markets view will ever match the theoretical
price.
And guess what it doesn't matter because all we can do is trade the
actual, current price.

The truth is that the stock market does not respond to news or economic
factors in a predictable manner. If fundamental analysis were able to
predict price movements then every piece of news or information about
a company would be reflected in it stock price.

The reality is that economic news announced in any one week hardly ever
changes the long-term trend and it seldom helps toward knowing what to
buy or sell or when to do it.

A use for fundamental analysis.
Despite its limitations, you should not ignore fundamentals completely.

Some fundamental data does have a direct impact on the market. For
example, an interest rate increase will usually have a negative impact
whilst an increase in the rate of employment will typically cause the
market to rally, at least for the short term.

It is also important to realize that fundamental analysis is still
relied on by most institutional investors and brokers. You can
therefore
gain a better understanding of how the market may react by reviewing
fundamental data.

But from our perspective, the most useful application of fundamental
analysis is as a filtering device.

We use it to narrow down the stocks that we consider for further
considerationFundamental analysis is of limited use to a trader and should never
be used for timing trades.

Technical analysis is the interpretation of price action through the
use of charts and indicators calculated from the base stock price
information.

Whilst fundamental analysis seeks to understand the reasons for
stock prices going up or down, technical analysis doesn't care why
price is moving. It just wants to understand the actual movement.

So rather than using a filter of financial analysis to review a
company's stock price, technical analysis studies a stock's price
movement directly.

We believe that virtually all you need to know is in the price
action and represented on the price chart. Technical analysis
operates on the theory that price reflects all known factors
affecting supply and demand at that time.

We have made the point before that people make and move markets,
not balance sheets. So the price action of a particular stock
reflects the combined view of all those trading it.

Charting price action tells us what has happened in the past and
as the past tends to repeat itself it can give us an indication
of what might happen in the future
In fact, we find that technical analysis is the most powerful
tool in our trading plan. And because of this, technical
analysis provides the framework for a systematic approach to
trading.

More importantly, it gives us the confidence to make our trading
decisions. And both these aspects are critical for success.

And as distinct from fundamental analysis, technical analysis
provides precise mechanisms for trade entry and exit. So we
want to suggest to you that the best strategy for determining
the timing of your trades is technical analysis.

The only technique for timing trading decisions is technical
analysis
In summary, of the four analysis techniques, our strongly
preferred strategy is technical analysis.

Whilst certainly not foolproof, technical analysis is a valuable
tool in our trading and is particularly useful over the
short-term.

But also learn how stocks react to news events and understand
some of their fundamentals. You will then be way ahead of
those traders who limit themselves to only one method.

Risk Management

One of the keys to successful trading is risk control and
money management.

What is Risk Management?

Risk management is the process of identifying and managing the
factors that could adversely affect your trading and then
taking all reasonable steps to limit or eliminate the impact
of each factor.

The essential steps are: identify the risk rate the impact of
the risk rate the probability of the risk develop strategies to
control the risk manage the risk.

So some risks may have a high impact but are very improbable.
And other risks may have a low impact but are likely to occur.

So your response to them will vary. And some will be easier
to manage than others.

For example, it is fairly unlikely that your broker would cease
operating. But it could happen and the impact would be
substantial
So you need to manage this by having good records and an
alternate broker.

On the other hand, you will regularly have to pay more for your
trades than you had hoped. And the risk here is that it could
cost you a lot of money.

But, unless you are careless, the impact of this will be low.
And the strategy for managing it is straightforward.

Risk Tolerance
You need to find a level of risk that allows you
to sleep at night. We call this the sleep test.

And you are the only one that can decide what this level is.

So what is your tolerance to risk?

Are you able to accept higher risks for higher financial
rewards? Or are you conservative when it comes to money and
investing?

If you have a low risk tolerance you need to find a trading
style that matches
On the other hand, if you have a higher risk tolerance, you
could adopt a more aggressive trading approach. But be careful
that you don't take on unnecessary risk just because you feel
you can cope. That is a recipe for disaster!

So don't rush into using trading techniques that you are not
comfortable with. But accept that any type of trading will
feel strange at the beginning.

And realize that your risk tolerance can change with experience.
So don't feel that you can only ever trade in one way. With
increased confidence you can expand your trading repertoire.

Comfort Zone
With most things in life you need to leave your
comfort zone to be successful. This is certainly true of
trading.

And leaving your comfort zone involves risk.

But you won't learn anything and you can't earn anything without
taking risk and moving away from comfort
So whilst it is important that you don't over extend yourself at
the beginning, it is also critical that you not be too easy on
yourself.

Just as you need to push your boundaries to grow as a person,
you need to extend yourself to become a great trader.
If you can't sleep at night, reduce your risk.
Risk Control
The way to control risk is to take risks!

Now that may sound like nonsense but just hear us out.

The reality is that you can't avoid risk. And without risk
there are no rewards. So if rewards come with risk -to not
take risks is riskier!

Now this is not just semantics.

Because it is critical that you understand and accept that
the only way to control risk is to embrace it. Ignoring it
will not make it go away. So learn to deal with it.

You can minimize risk if you know what you are doing. But
realize that you can't eliminate risk, you can only control
it.

Risk control is essentially about survival. It is a way of
ensuring that you survive long enough to develop into a good
trader. And then long enough to become wealthy!
So your first goal in the market must be preservation of your
capital.

The key aspect of risk control is money management. But
before we discuss that topic, we would like to review some
broader issues.

Risk control is essential for your survival as a trader.
After trading psychology it is the most critical factor.
And unless you learn how to manage risk you will never achieve
trading success. It is that simple.

Know the Risks

Before you can deal with risk you need to identify it. And then
develop a strategy for managing it.

Some risks can be controlled and some you will have very little
control over. And risk can be divided into two different types, Avoidable Risk
These are risks that can be eliminated through
your trading rules or management techniques.

For example, trading illiquid markets (markets without sufficient
volume) is very risky. But having a rule that you won't trade
them eliminates that risk.

Another example of an avoidable risk is order placement.
If you use limit orders instead of market orders then you
automatically reduce your trading risk.


unavoidable.
Use limit orders whenever possible.
Unavoidable Risk
These are risks that cannot be eliminated.
And unavoidable risk can be further broken down into those
that can be controlled and those that can't.

An example of unavoidable risk that is controllable is trading
losses. There is no way you can eliminate loss. But you certainly
can control the size of your losses.

An example of a risk that appears uncontrollable is that a company
may go bankrupt whilst you hold their stock. But whilst this may
seem outside your control, the reality is that there are usually
signs leading up to a company failure. So the risk management
technique is to monitor all your trades for problem signs.

A truly uncontrollable risk event is something like 9/11.
But even here you can control the risk to some extent by your
ability to respond quickly and appropriately.

Types of Risks
So what are the risks you need to be aware of and
learn to manage?

Some of the most important for you to learn are:
Lack of Knowledge
No Plan
Market Risk
Market Sector
Individual Stock Actual Trade

you really should be across them before you start your trading.
It is a crucial area for you to understand if you are to be
successful in your trading.

say this so you can get the information you need to strike
a balance between embracing risk so you can make money and
avoiding the risks that could wipe you out financially.