Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[bigbullinside]

Here we go...

1.Global rally cannot be endless. There has to be a reversal at some point. Its only a matter of time. In my opinion this month(max next month) will be the end of the game for US/global equities. Our market has got disconnected from the global trend and in any case will under-perform. In case US markets correct 25-30% from its peak which eventually will happen, I expect Nifty to at least correct 35-40%. This will obviously happen gradually.

2. IMO, 5880 will be an ideal level to start shorting if it is seen. 5880-5950 is an excellent level to accumulate shorts.

3. I don't trade options except in extreme cases wherein I use it for hedging. I think other members who are experts in trading options will help you out with this one.

Thanks for that, prada.
But as I will be buying naked puts, I want to be really thorough.
Do you see the rally fizzling out in April itself? And do you see a significant decline in May (Sell in May, And Go Away).
Are you adding to your shorts right now?

Cheers.

 

[bigbullinside]

In my opinion, this is a FAKE rally of sorts for NIFTY

I have already bought 5600 PE at dirt-cheap 11.75/- with as many lots as I can accumulate :thumb:

The 5600 Put is so cheap right now...that getting a DOUBLING or TRIPLING off this price is like child's play

Dude, what kind of stop are you keeping.

 

[jamit_05]

It is a very hard task to predict the top. Hard because probabilities are low. However, if ones judgement is confirmed with price pattern analysis then probabilities drastically increase adding value to ones predictions. But for that the price should reach those levels.

Currently, it is accepted by all that the trend is up. Some say 6300 will be the top because Dow has hit all time high, some say enough is enough... lets see.

 

[SexyTrader]

Dude, what kind of stop are you keeping.

I would keep a SL of 7/-

But the fact is....the spot-Nifty may come down to 5700 at-least in the month of March is what I feel.

The DOW rising has got nothing to do with our state of affairs in India...so let them have fun while we start accumulating Puts for a rainy day ahead :thumb:

 

[Option.Trader]

It is a very hard task to predict the top. Hard because probabilities are low. However, if ones judgement is confirmed with price pattern analysis then probabilities drastically increase adding value to ones predictions. But for that the price should reach those levels.

Currently, it is accepted by all that the trend is up. Some say 6300 will be the top because Dow has hit all time high, some say enough is enough... lets see.

From options data, looks like 5940 would be top.. unless things drastically change and there is a blowout... lets see it this way
1) Current rally may be factoring in a 75 basis point cut by RBI ...
2) Only driven by FII- at some point after sequesterian on March 13th... global steroids may run out
3)Bond buying by Euro

Options data does indicate exhaustion with FII net OI decreasing... so need to watch out...but as long as there is no liquidation of 5800PE, this is going to stay range bound

 

[wierdfantasy]

Hi Guys,

I have 5 6000 CE at 13 Rs and 2 5900 CE at 35 Rs.
Is it the right time to book profits in these?
If not then what can be levels around which to book profits?

Thanks

 

[jamit_05]

From options data, looks like 5940 would be top.. unless things drastically change and there is a blowout... lets see it this way
1) Current rally may be factoring in a 75 basis point cut by RBI ...
2) Only driven by FII- at some point after sequesterian on March 13th... global steroids may run out
3)Bond buying by Euro

Options data does indicate exhaustion with FII net OI decreasing... so need to watch out...but as long as there is no liquidation of 5800PE, this is going to stay range bound

There should be plenty resistance in the area of 5940 to 6000. Hope to tally that with you options analysis. Great going with the thread.

Regards.

 

[mech71]

It is a very hard task to predict the top. Hard because probabilities are low. However, if ones judgement is confirmed with price pattern analysis then probabilities drastically increase adding value to ones predictions. But for that the price should reach those levels.

Currently, it is accepted by all that the trend is up. Some say 6300 will be the top because Dow has hit all time high, some say enough is enough... lets see.

Since DOW is already in a new territory, it seems there is a race now going on in all asian indices as to who will reach the top first....."main pehle aage jaayega ki tu aage jaayega"....... anyhow I feel there will be some retracement to 5780/5800 and then again reach new high and from there will start to slide down. Euphoria can take markets to even 6300 / 6500 levels.............

 

[Option.Trader]

Since DOW is already in a new territory, it seems there is a race now going on in all asian indices as to who will reach the top first....."main pehle aage jaayega ki tu aage jaayega"....... anyhow I feel there will be some retracement to 5780/5800 and then again reach new high and from there will start to slide down. Euphoria can take markets to even 6300 / 6500 levels.............

Well as the saying goes... when the even the milkman says that a correction is on the cards, you are sure to get a rocket ride up... this bull rally has taken everyone by surprise and though Prada may say its a false rally... it still gave close to 300 points from the low... i think we need to take the points and go home...no use predicting the high and low when it isnt giving you points... we should ride the horse and dismount taking home the profits... everyone wins

 

[prada]

@OT, I had posted this message few weeks ago. It was no surprise to me to see the rally from the oversold levels. I was personally long in some of the high quality stocks which I had suggested in one of my earlier messages to the members. It is time for me to book profit and stay in the sidelines until I spot the next opportunity. The only asset class I will be long and picking on every dip is USD/INR.

28th February
@DSM, In this leg of the move , I don't see Nifty falling below 5590. Close to 5590-5600 I see a sharp pull back in our markets to the extent of at least 4-5%. Both Bank nifty and Midcap index are extremely oversold and this will lead the rally from the front. Going long close to 5600 will be extremely fruitful. Will analyse the next leg of the fall and post it here once the relief rally gets over.

Well as the saying goes... when the even the milkman says that a correction is on the cards, you are sure to get a rocket ride up... this bull rally has taken everyone by surprise and though Prada may say its a false rally... it still gave close to 300 points from the low... i think we need to take the points and go home...no use predicting the high and low when it isnt giving you points... we should ride the horse and dismount taking home the profits... everyone wins