Golden Nugget
- Thread starter Tavnaz
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1. Yes, I know wave count is involved.
2. Once you see a considerable momentum or reluctance in the movement, the order 'visualizing' automatically gets into picture.
Yes it does
3. Intraday trading is not so special. The purpose of any trading - swing, positional or intraday - is not to trade against the trend. Period.
That's Right
4. I wouldn't know how or what other traders do. But to me market IS ambiguity. And I deal with it by locking my profit at the first chance. As the Ferngi in Startrek has a saying: Once you have their latinum, do everything to keep it.
95 % of the time next bar trades above or below the previous one,in short price will always move
When we know price is surely going to move one way or the other we know something for sure,then there is no ambiguity.
Markets as a whole has a well defined behavior.
Prediction deals with ambiguity
Euro will stop at
XXXX is ambiguity
Euro may move from XXXX to YYYY and can be ridden is surity
This all seems philosphical but it isn't
5. No, I will not buy at B. Yes, I will wait for second test. That is what I have said in my post, I will let the exhaustion candles playout their bit around B.
Double Bottom is for a Veteran,First touch s for Noobs
6. Oh, figuring out B is not that big deal. In fact, figuring out what market may do next is what gives any trader his trading edge. And ofcourse, no offense taken, friend.
If your system involves trading B when it hasn't formed,because in my opinion ,you are assuming B will form somewhere and you are trading it profitably,then it is good for you.
Traders right, when they enter the market are taught support resistance,supply and demand but never taught how to use them.
No magical line in the sand can make the price turn.
Traders lose statistical edge when they trade against price,(the core concept behind support and resistance)
You can see Price action to see where support resistance is,but not precede the price and mark a line where price will turn.
Traders edge is the trend.
Without it there will be no money
Correction. There is no such thing as single exhaustion candle per se. It is a complex set of candles. I have seen them, and I see them everyday. Yes, they don't work 100% of times, but I take the trade 100% of times once I am convinced they have done their bit. That is my deal with the market.
Next time when you see a pin bar not breaking its high, please check at what point of the price movement the pinbar turns up. You will know why they fail and what game got played around that pinbar.
There is more to it then you just said,but it is all based on experience,can't described in single post.
Anyway, nice interacting with you. It is 4pm and my time at Traderji is up. See you next week. Take care and have a profitable week.
Yes have a nice weekend
2. Once you see a considerable momentum or reluctance in the movement, the order 'visualizing' automatically gets into picture.
Yes it does
3. Intraday trading is not so special. The purpose of any trading - swing, positional or intraday - is not to trade against the trend. Period.
That's Right
4. I wouldn't know how or what other traders do. But to me market IS ambiguity. And I deal with it by locking my profit at the first chance. As the Ferngi in Startrek has a saying: Once you have their latinum, do everything to keep it.
95 % of the time next bar trades above or below the previous one,in short price will always move
When we know price is surely going to move one way or the other we know something for sure,then there is no ambiguity.
Markets as a whole has a well defined behavior.
Prediction deals with ambiguity
Euro will stop at
XXXX is ambiguity
Euro may move from XXXX to YYYY and can be ridden is surity
This all seems philosphical but it isn't
5. No, I will not buy at B. Yes, I will wait for second test. That is what I have said in my post, I will let the exhaustion candles playout their bit around B.
Double Bottom is for a Veteran,First touch s for Noobs
6. Oh, figuring out B is not that big deal. In fact, figuring out what market may do next is what gives any trader his trading edge. And ofcourse, no offense taken, friend.
If your system involves trading B when it hasn't formed,because in my opinion ,you are assuming B will form somewhere and you are trading it profitably,then it is good for you.
Traders right, when they enter the market are taught support resistance,supply and demand but never taught how to use them.
No magical line in the sand can make the price turn.
Traders lose statistical edge when they trade against price,(the core concept behind support and resistance)
You can see Price action to see where support resistance is,but not precede the price and mark a line where price will turn.
Traders edge is the trend.
Without it there will be no money
Correction. There is no such thing as single exhaustion candle per se. It is a complex set of candles. I have seen them, and I see them everyday. Yes, they don't work 100% of times, but I take the trade 100% of times once I am convinced they have done their bit. That is my deal with the market.
Next time when you see a pin bar not breaking its high, please check at what point of the price movement the pinbar turns up. You will know why they fail and what game got played around that pinbar.
There is more to it then you just said,but it is all based on experience,can't described in single post.
Anyway, nice interacting with you. It is 4pm and my time at Traderji is up. See you next week. Take care and have a profitable week.
Yes have a nice weekend
The Concept of Time.
Why forex gurus or market analyst pay lip service to higher timeframes ,and call lower ones noise is to create ambiguity.
lower time frames are faster hence appear noisy and in comprehensible.
But we are no going to discuss about trading higher time frames.
We will discuss why one must wait for visualizing the proper movements in price.
Why 5 minute down candle in an uptrend can lie is because it is just way less amount of time to contain the information price wants to convey.
But giving price say 30-40 Minutes or even an hour(for intraday up trend)
We give price the chance to tip us on how much price actually wants to drop.
In short given an hour we can assume price has contained enough down ward information that it may have ended.
So waiting an hour we gave price time to see that yes let it drop see how much it can drop.
Now on a weekly up trend same time value to account for down move can and should be increased. to say 12 hours or so.
Let us assume there is an up move on a daily chart from a point A happening let us assume that somehow you were in it.You are sitting on your chair you see first 5 minute candle drop.
What do you think.
If you are a support resistance trader,or supply demand trader,you close your buy if there is your line there.
If you are skeptical PA trader you say,i don't care about support resistance let price show me over the next 1 hour what it wants to do.
Price prints another down bar on 5 minute again
40 minutes later you see it is still going own but slower
in an hour price has gone down but also come up a little bit.
Now give enough time you are now able to see that B has been established.
Now i can discount all ambiguity and surely say that it is point B.
You pull up your chart and see in 5 minute the last time price jumped upstairs.
You wait for DB on 5 minute of the down move,And last lower high to be equalized.
then you buy it with stops behind the last impulse wave.
The above qualifies for a sane traders plan.
Now price starts going up and then stops at the high,Now you have yourself a resistance to up move.
You close your buy if your skeptical,you hold your buy if your tough trader.But move stops to Breakeven.
If you are very tough trader you place your stop behind last down move double bottom,and wait for price to break the high or take your stop looss out.(This relates to volatility, i will explain this later)
If you have been reading so far,you may have visualized how a level came into existence and how price started to appear capped at the high on higher time frame.
First it was just the 5 minute bear candle,now it is a 1 hourly bear candle.
Up the time a little bit if price spends 4 hours here this might be formation of daily resistance.
Time is key.Given enough time price shows its hand.
But it will never violate the principle of trend movement.
It will still stay up as long as last higher low holds.
You need to start looking at it this way,price hits a level drops from there then starts showing resistance on hourly,and eventually that is how B(resistance) is formed.
Chew on this.
It is based on what we have learn't so far.
Why forex gurus or market analyst pay lip service to higher timeframes ,and call lower ones noise is to create ambiguity.
lower time frames are faster hence appear noisy and in comprehensible.
But we are no going to discuss about trading higher time frames.
We will discuss why one must wait for visualizing the proper movements in price.
Why 5 minute down candle in an uptrend can lie is because it is just way less amount of time to contain the information price wants to convey.
But giving price say 30-40 Minutes or even an hour(for intraday up trend)
We give price the chance to tip us on how much price actually wants to drop.
In short given an hour we can assume price has contained enough down ward information that it may have ended.
So waiting an hour we gave price time to see that yes let it drop see how much it can drop.
Now on a weekly up trend same time value to account for down move can and should be increased. to say 12 hours or so.
Let us assume there is an up move on a daily chart from a point A happening let us assume that somehow you were in it.You are sitting on your chair you see first 5 minute candle drop.
What do you think.
If you are a support resistance trader,or supply demand trader,you close your buy if there is your line there.
If you are skeptical PA trader you say,i don't care about support resistance let price show me over the next 1 hour what it wants to do.
Price prints another down bar on 5 minute again
40 minutes later you see it is still going own but slower
in an hour price has gone down but also come up a little bit.
Now give enough time you are now able to see that B has been established.
Now i can discount all ambiguity and surely say that it is point B.
You pull up your chart and see in 5 minute the last time price jumped upstairs.
You wait for DB on 5 minute of the down move,And last lower high to be equalized.
then you buy it with stops behind the last impulse wave.
The above qualifies for a sane traders plan.
Now price starts going up and then stops at the high,Now you have yourself a resistance to up move.
You close your buy if your skeptical,you hold your buy if your tough trader.But move stops to Breakeven.
If you are very tough trader you place your stop behind last down move double bottom,and wait for price to break the high or take your stop looss out.(This relates to volatility, i will explain this later)
If you have been reading so far,you may have visualized how a level came into existence and how price started to appear capped at the high on higher time frame.
First it was just the 5 minute bear candle,now it is a 1 hourly bear candle.
Up the time a little bit if price spends 4 hours here this might be formation of daily resistance.
Time is key.Given enough time price shows its hand.
But it will never violate the principle of trend movement.
It will still stay up as long as last higher low holds.
You need to start looking at it this way,price hits a level drops from there then starts showing resistance on hourly,and eventually that is how B(resistance) is formed.
Chew on this.
It is based on what we have learn't so far.
Last edited:
Defining days in Categories is essential.
None of the categories violate the basic trending principle.
Be advised these categories are like nuts and bolts they can be applied on any time frame.You can replace Bull day with Bull week with same result. and so on and so forth.
Vice versa you can break down a Pinnish day into two 12 hourly bear and bull days
And divide 12/24 and watch 30 minute chart with same result.
Use your imagination.
Starting with my favorite
A Bull Day,
As visualized on and hourly chart.
24 Candles of pure Bull Monstrosity
Coming in next post
None of the categories violate the basic trending principle.
Be advised these categories are like nuts and bolts they can be applied on any time frame.You can replace Bull day with Bull week with same result. and so on and so forth.
Vice versa you can break down a Pinnish day into two 12 hourly bear and bull days
And divide 12/24 and watch 30 minute chart with same result.
Use your imagination.
Starting with my favorite
A Bull Day,
As visualized on and hourly chart.
24 Candles of pure Bull Monstrosity
Coming in next post
You will need a few tools to kick this thing into action.
MT4 trading platform from a regulated broker.
FXpro
Oanda
Exness
XM
Forex.com
I am not affiliated so i'm not liable,do it at your own risk.
They are good don't be afraid though.
Any known or unknown broker if you like.
A basic knowledge of Fibonacci
if you don't know
you will only need 23.6 fib
38.2
61.8
and 50 which is not a fib
be advised we are not trading fibs we need to know extent of retracements in a trend.
for reasons associated with supply and demand these fibs work,they don't have any ingrained value other then that.
A strong trend always pulls back till 38.2 at max
A gradual trend till 50 percent.
A more shallower trend will go 61.8
But a more weaker trend can go as far as 75 percent.
Then you have a 100 percent which is last wave canceled.
The following indicators.
Courtesy of Pips for life at FF he has a thread there go search google.
P4lperiod converter to make custom candlesticks
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1369569&d=1392409680
p4l candle time to see time left in candle
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=666025&d=1300853695
igel spread indicator
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=147254&d=1221135788
Again i have not written them.
MT4 trading platform from a regulated broker.
FXpro
Oanda
Exness
XM
Forex.com
I am not affiliated so i'm not liable,do it at your own risk.
They are good don't be afraid though.
Any known or unknown broker if you like.
A basic knowledge of Fibonacci
if you don't know
you will only need 23.6 fib
38.2
61.8
and 50 which is not a fib
be advised we are not trading fibs we need to know extent of retracements in a trend.
for reasons associated with supply and demand these fibs work,they don't have any ingrained value other then that.
A strong trend always pulls back till 38.2 at max
A gradual trend till 50 percent.
A more shallower trend will go 61.8
But a more weaker trend can go as far as 75 percent.
Then you have a 100 percent which is last wave canceled.
The following indicators.
Courtesy of Pips for life at FF he has a thread there go search google.
P4lperiod converter to make custom candlesticks
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1369569&d=1392409680
p4l candle time to see time left in candle
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=666025&d=1300853695
igel spread indicator
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=147254&d=1221135788
Again i have not written them.
Last edited:
Trusting the Trend.
This Post is going to be about trusting the trend.
Retail traders only comprise a very microscopic part of the market and have no potential to move the market.
The real power to move the markets are with big banks and big hedge funds.
To all those people doubting the continuation of the trend must understand that without a trend a bank will not make money.
And if they will not make money they will not be market participant.
When a big company that exports its products uses the services of a bank for purchasing options or futures or to ensure fullfilment of foreign exchange they become participants of this forex market,to cater to the needs of these millions of small companies and 1000s of big ones big banks create markets (market making) they offer them their services for a price the spread or commission ,they create inventories of these foreign currencies for their clients.
And sometimes take opposite side of market,in short during an up market when everyone wants to buy the banks orderbook are showing a short they are taking the opposite side.But every once in a while they will snap there orderbook back in the right side,and this will cause them to come in profit in short they reinforce the trend.
This causes them to come in profit and market acting in a wave pattern.
Prices never go in a straight line just because of the above reason.
If they did even big boys won't make money.
And of course this is the ultimate reasons for the trends to exist.
If markets are ranging no big participant is there.
They are either gathering more orders.
So one thing about trend can be trusted that they will exist,and reinforce.
So buying Euro intraday trend up involves faith that it will continue but more then that it has a subsequent reason.
Unless proven otherwise by US markets that they disagree, with the european banks price will stay up.
So US open trading up in sync with the Europe on a bull day is them being in agreement with each other.
So two key points are, have faith in Inraday trends as they are solidly backed.
Only big market participant can change direction so session trading in forex is crucial.
This Post is going to be about trusting the trend.
Retail traders only comprise a very microscopic part of the market and have no potential to move the market.
The real power to move the markets are with big banks and big hedge funds.
To all those people doubting the continuation of the trend must understand that without a trend a bank will not make money.
And if they will not make money they will not be market participant.
When a big company that exports its products uses the services of a bank for purchasing options or futures or to ensure fullfilment of foreign exchange they become participants of this forex market,to cater to the needs of these millions of small companies and 1000s of big ones big banks create markets (market making) they offer them their services for a price the spread or commission ,they create inventories of these foreign currencies for their clients.
And sometimes take opposite side of market,in short during an up market when everyone wants to buy the banks orderbook are showing a short they are taking the opposite side.But every once in a while they will snap there orderbook back in the right side,and this will cause them to come in profit in short they reinforce the trend.
This causes them to come in profit and market acting in a wave pattern.
Prices never go in a straight line just because of the above reason.
If they did even big boys won't make money.
And of course this is the ultimate reasons for the trends to exist.
If markets are ranging no big participant is there.
They are either gathering more orders.
So one thing about trend can be trusted that they will exist,and reinforce.
So buying Euro intraday trend up involves faith that it will continue but more then that it has a subsequent reason.
Unless proven otherwise by US markets that they disagree, with the european banks price will stay up.
So US open trading up in sync with the Europe on a bull day is them being in agreement with each other.
So two key points are, have faith in Inraday trends as they are solidly backed.
Only big market participant can change direction so session trading in forex is crucial.
Last edited:
Few more posts and nugget will be delivered.
But purpose still needs fulfillment,for that I am going to give the thread viewers an exercise.
Please use your vivid imagination and trend principles illustrated and Give the possible scenerios in which Price can playout in the following day.
I am proving a hint here .
Markets will remain sideways in the asian session.
There is no support resistance available here,other then the one already formed in the hourly view.
Attached is a blank 4 hourly view of the previous example which was provided,refer to that for hourly view.
you can use paintbrush and mark possible outcomes for the next day using line tool.
But purpose still needs fulfillment,for that I am going to give the thread viewers an exercise.
Please use your vivid imagination and trend principles illustrated and Give the possible scenerios in which Price can playout in the following day.
I am proving a hint here .
Markets will remain sideways in the asian session.
There is no support resistance available here,other then the one already formed in the hourly view.
Attached is a blank 4 hourly view of the previous example which was provided,refer to that for hourly view.
you can use paintbrush and mark possible outcomes for the next day using line tool.
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