Hi
and welcome in this thread about the Euro Future. Decided to stay and post for the moment only on that future. Idea was first a bit different, but I cleard that now with the admin and thanks to them to move the thread. Sorry PT for you, but if you still feel to follow this thread, you any way welcome at any time.
I trade the Euro mainly with options, as the CME offers that in the Globex. So do not expect deep chart analyzing techniques and full colored pictures with comments in this thread, as this thread will be less about technical analyzes. I leave that to the future/forex traders even I have clear ideas about what kind of TA I use. I tried to trade naked futures in this market and if you look at the chart only from the last two weeks I have to say: Very difficult. My last chart showed an entry and that short up move was at the end at 1.2623
Option offer a lot and option can tell a lot about the market. I am very clear that you not can trade options in that market in your country, but even than let me move on with this thread.
With the option I profited from all the last up moves we had from the low to the last top of 1.27. I may made a mistake by taking the first profit on the 1.26 level, as I could have profited even more, but I was not sure if market would spike up again when the USA market opened.
How to get a feeling for the market direction with options?
Answer: The way the filled is from the call or the put we want.
If we hardly or may even never get filled (time it takes to be filled and spread in the market) with a limit buy order (because we want to trade in the direction we think the market goes when going long), it can sometimes be valued as a sing that the market or the so called option creator (which is at the same time the option market maker) is not real willing to sell his option to us.
Why? As he has to buy back that option later he want to buy it back for less money. If he thinks that this is not the case, he will fight for the price. If he fights for the price, that can be a sing that market is at turning point or will further go in the direction we anticipate, because the market maker is afraid to lose money.
If the filled is done very quickly and with no time, we can anticipate that the market will not move further in the given direction, as the seller knows that he can buy back this option later for a cheaper price. The whole story vice versa for selling options.
Check it once with Nifty futures. But as such ways of trading not work in all markets it may also not works atoll in your market.
Now: What can happen next with the Euro? We made a big jump up and now it is relaxing to collect new power for the next move. It is a normal thing that we now come back a bit with little jump ups on that way down. Nothing special.
But what could be special? Maybe these: We form now a triple bottom around 1.2590. Edit: Double bottom is 100% formed and up we go.
Good trading
DanPickUp