Daily Market Analysis and News From NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 04 - 08, 2021​

EUR/USD: Bears' New Win

EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.

September turned out to be the worst month for the US stock market, allowing the dollar to strengthen its position as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the Fed made it clear at its last meeting that it may be ready to begin a soft rollback of the monetary stimulus (QE) program in November. After that, the DXY dollar index posted its best monthly gain this year.

Things could have changed last Thursday. The US ended its fiscal year on September 30, and as of October 01, the country must live under a new budget, which is still not there. If President Biden had not signed legislation before midnight to increase the national debt limit, it would have threatened not only with the suspension of U.S. government, but also with a potential default. However, Biden approved lifting the limit at the very last moment, but only until December 3.

Amid the intrigue with government debt, the market hardly reacted to the contradictory US macro statistics, although the news from the labour market was not the most gratifying. For example, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 351,000 to 362,000, against the forecast decline to 335,000. The PMI index of Chicago in September fell from 66.8 to 64.7 points (against the forecast of 65 points). But the US GDP for the Q2 grew by 6.7% and turned out to be better than the forecast by 0.1%.

Governors of Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic remained cautious last week, leaving their escape routes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate, said once again that the acceleration of inflation should be replaced by its slowdown. The strong rise in prices, he said, is “driven by supply chain problems” that his department cannot control.

Almost the same statement was made by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde on Tuesday 28 September. She warned market participants against overreacting to the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, considering the phenomenon a temporary factor.

Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in September, the highest level in 13 years, according to Eurostat data. As for inflation in Germany, the main locomotive of the EU, it peaked in 29 years at 4.1%. According to preliminary forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone will approach 4% in Q4 and remain above 2% in the first half of 2022. According to analysts, such an increase is most likely caused by a sharp jump in energy prices.

These statistics and the fact that some market participants decided to close short EUR/USD positions at the end of the US fiscal year, recording gains, helped the common European currency a little, and the pair, having fought back from the local bottom, ended the five-day run at 1.1595.

As for the long-term forecast, many experts believe that the euro has no particular prospects. Some even believe that the pair will return to the spring 2020 lows by the end of next year. As for the near future forecast, 50% of analysts are in favor of a further decline in the pair. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 (15% give signals that the pair is oversold). 20% vote for the sideways trend, and the remaining 30% of experts vote for the growth of the pair.

Support levels are 1.1560, 1.1500 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

Of the events to come, note the release of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday October 05. Eurozone retail sales will be available on the following day, October 06. The ADP U.S. private employment report will also be released on that day, and another piece of data from the American labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs US Fed

Last week ended with a bearish win for the GBP/USD pair as well. After starting at 1.3670 and losing 260 points, it bottomed at 1.3410 on Wednesday September 29. This was followed by a fairly powerful rebound and a finish at 1.3545.

Due to the US government debt situation, the market hardly paid attention to the encouraging macro statistics from the UK. But it turned out to be significantly better than forecast. Not only has the GDP drop in the Q1 2021 been revised down from minus 6.1% to 4.8%, but, with a forecast of minus 1.5%, it was 5.5% in Q2.

However, according to a number of experts, the growth of the pound at the end of the week is only indirectly related to these impressive positive statistics. The main reason is that the British currency has been strongly oversold: it has lost about 500 pips to the dollar since mid-September.

At the moment, 70% of experts predict that the pair will go south again to test support in the 1.3400 zone. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, it still sides with the bears as well¬: 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are colored red.

It should be noted that when we move to the forecast before the year end, the picture abruptly changes to the opposite: 70% of analysts already say that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 1.3900- 1.4000 zone. Moreover, a third of these 70% does not rule out that it can even reach the May-June highs of 1.4200-1.4250.

The nearest resistances along the way are 1.3600, 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810. Supports are in zones 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3185.

According to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First, there is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in the UK due to COVID-19. UK assets are attractive both in terms of valuation and in terms of economic normalization after the pandemic. Secondly, it is a decrease in political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on Scottish independence. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to analysts at Citibank, are “well placed to confront Fed policy.”

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: 112.00 Again

As predicted by most experts (60%), the USD/JPY pair managed to climb to 112.00 after the Fed's QE cut announcement, and even slightly higher, recording a high at 112.07. The forecast went on to say that it was unlikely to gain a foothold above this horizon. This is exactly what happened. Amid a drop in US government bond yields from 1.567% to 1.474% and a weaker dollar, the yen managed to recoup much of the losses at the end of the week and ended the trading session at 111.02.

Recall that unlike other central banks in developed countries, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. Therefore, the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

At the moment, 50% of experts expect the pair to make another attempt to consolidate above the 112.00 horizon. 25% of analysts are neutral, and another 25% expect the pair to fall.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.45, 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 111.00 and 111.65.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. On this basis, the absolute majority of analysts believe that after the failed storm of 112.00, the pair will return to this trading range, where it will continue to move.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Goodbye Bears"

According to statistics from the 99Bitcoins website, digital gold was predicted to die 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.

99Bitcoins has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset.

Another obituary may soon be registered, this one authored by entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. The other day, this best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” projected a “giant stock market collapse” due in October. The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. The main reason for Kiyosaki's upcoming collapse is the Fed, which has started to sell too many Treasury bonds.

Another unhappy forecast was given by an analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model predicts the value of bitcoin based on the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. Calculations by PlanB have recently showed that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. And now things have changed for the worse: according to the analyst, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000 instead of rising.

Indeed, bitcoin dynamics did not bode well for the crypto market in September, with the BTC/USD pair falling to $39,666. However, the first day of October changed everything¬: bitcoin flew up, rising to $48,250. We have repeatedly noted the correlation between the stock and crypto markets, which is based on the risk appetite of investors. This time, too, the rise in the price of digital assets occurred in parallel with the rise of stock indices such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones.

An additional impetus for bitcoin could have been given by a surge in the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges. According to analyst Joseph Edwards of London-based firm Enigma Securities, derivatives trading often affects BTC spot prices. Another impetus may have been the decision by Iranian authorities to lift the ban on cryptocurrency mining.

Famous trader hailed the rise of the major cryptocurrency, exclaiming: “Goodbye bears “, and pointed to the move of leading altcoins into the green zone.

Another trader, billionaire Steven A. Cohen, owner of hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, saw a perfect scenario for bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. Cohen believes that BTC may still decline, while it is important its price doesn't fall below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the the coin up to $64,000.

The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.

The total crypto market capitalization rose again above the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion on October 01 and stands at $2.06 trillion ($1.84 trillion a week ago). But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 27 points.

And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. So what does it take to make money on cryptocurrencies? It turns out it's all about getting a hamster and giving it a chance to... trade. Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Goxx - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.

The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. Turning the running wheel, Mr. Goxx "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.

The talented hamster managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+23%).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

September Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders Profit Neared 550,000 USD​

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from India, account No.1584XXX, earning almost USD 300,000, or USD 291,944 to be exact. As the analysis shows, the main trading instruments of the leaders are still the pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD). The winner of the September rating used a number of other pairs as well, such as EUR/NZD, for example.

The second place on the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No. 1397XXX. Their result was almost half that of the leader, but still amounted to an impressive USD 159,241, and was obtained for the same volatile pairs including the British currency: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

A trader from Vietnam, account No.1499XXX, who ranked third, used the GBP/JPY pair heavily as well. Their profit at the end of the month amounted to USD 93.610.

The passive investment services:
- CopyTrading has changed its leader. It is the aggressive SHASK VN signal broadcast from Vietnam now. It showed a yield of 435% on deals with oil (72% of the total) and with gold (21%), in the last three days of September alone. At the same time, the maximum drawdown during the lifetime of the signal was close to 63% of the deposit, making subscribing to it a high-risk event.

As for the leader of July-August, BangBigBosStop1, the first autumn month was not very successful for it. It suffered a loss of 6% in September. There is nothing critical about it, though, as the total profit for the five months is 668%. However, despite the advantages of this signal, the maximum drawdown of 58% also makes it a high-risk group.
As for less risky but also less profitable signals, one might look at KennyFXpro-The Compass, for example. This signal has shown a gain of 135% with a drawdown of around 29% since last November.

- Judging by the title, the same author acts as a manager for NordFX PAMM service as well. Using the nickname KennyFXpro-The Multi 3000 EA, they have increased their capital there by 42% with a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other, even less risky offers in the PAMM service. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 exceeded 26% over six months with a maximum drawdown of about 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 8,710, was credited in September to a partner from India, account No.1258ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received USD 6,384;
- and, finally, their colleague from China (account No.1336XXX) closes the top three, earning USD 5,992 in commission.

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- The United States will hold a meeting with representatives from 30 countries to jointly fight cybercrime and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, US President Joe Biden said. It is not specified which specific states are in question.
The Biden administration has identified tracking cryptocurrency transactions as a possible option to combat ransomware. This happened after several cyberattacks on major US companies.

- ESET has released a list of countries with the highest rate of cryptocurrency related cyber threats. Russia comes first, accounting for 10% of all cases detected. Peru comes second with 6.8% of threats, third is the United States responsible for 5.3% of threats.
At the same time, the total number of cryptocurrency threats detected by ESET has decreased by 23.6%. Experts have noticed that this dynamic is directly linked to cryptocurrency prices: the threats have decreased significantly since the collapse of the quotes last May.
In addition to mining malware, cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes are gaining popularity, where scammers lure their victims to fake investment sites or impersonate governmental bodies or celebrities.
Victims of such schemes lost at least $80 million from October 2020 to May 2021, according to the Federal Trade Commission of the United States. Meanwhile, according to Chainalysis, the financial pyramid Finiko with Russian roots alone collected $800 million worth of cryptocurrency from Eastern Europeans.

- Well-known Canadian entrepreneur, investor and TV show host Kevin O'Leary said that he now has more cryptocurrency in his portfolio than gold. “Gold takes 5% in my portfolio and cryptocurrency has bypassed it for the first time. But this does not mean that I will sell all the gold, since I do not see the point in this yet. The crypto sector offers not only speculation on the BTC rate now, but there are many other ways to invest as well. And I plan to become an investor in this field.”
Cryptocurrencies currently account for 7% of his portfolio, O'Leary said. At the same time, he said that while gold and bitcoin are often opposed, having both assets in your portfolio is a good idea.

- Chivo public cryptocurrency wallet users in El Salvador will receive a discount on their car fuel if they pay in bitcoin. The announcement was made by the country's president, Nayib Bukele.
“State-owned Chivo negotiated with major fuel companies to sell every gallon of gasoline through a crypto wallet for $0.20 cheaper from October 1," he wrote. According to Bukele, the measure “reverses several increases in global fuel prices.”
Users expressed their doubts about the usefulness of such a step in their comments: “These 20 cents will come from all of us, right? The filling stations will not lose, they will be reimbursed from the taxes we paid, including the taxes of those who walk. "

- Former CIA and US National Security Agency official Edward Snowden, who escaped to Russia, said the Chinese government's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry “has only strengthened bitcoin."
Snowden recalled his own entry from March 2020 about the desire to buy the first cryptocurrency and noted the tenfold growth of the asset since then. “It [bitcoin] has grown about tenfold since then, despite a coordinated global campaign by governments to undermine public understanding and support of cryptocurrencies,” wrote the former special agent.

- Chief strategist at CoinShares Meltem Demirors investment company said in a comment to CNBC that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will soar to $100,000 by the end of 2021. A lot of cash remains untapped, she said, so investors plan to include digital gold in their portfolio.
She also named the buy-on-rumor, sell-on-fact model as one of the catalysts for price changes in the first cryptocurrency. “We are now seeing a lot of hype around the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF,” explained Demirors. She said “certain movements” on long-term options with six-digit figures will begin at the end of Q4 2021 and early Q1 2022.

- Anthony Pompliano, an avid bitcoin supporter and co-founder of the Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm, has identified the most serious risks to the coin's growth. “Unlike the sentiments of bitcoin supporters, it will not turn into a currency, which means its market will be quite limited. The maximum for bitcoin is the capitalization of gold, which is essentially a store of value. Bitcoin is not used for day-to-day shopping, and while its upside potential may be slightly higher, it is still limited. "
Pompliano also highlighted several factors that may have undesirable consequences for the main cryptocurrency: “It may be revealed who Satoshi is and if it turns out he is not a very good person, this could have a negative impact on bitcoin itself. In addition, no one uses it for specific purposes, such as making international payments, as it is slow and expensive. There is also an option that governments will decide to tighten measures against bitcoin in the future, for example, they will begin to regulate it, impose heavy taxes or even ban and outlaw it. "
A particular risk, according to Pompliano, is that “bitcoin is still in development. It is still being updated, and although the process includes many filters, security checks and more, there may be a bug in the code that is introduced that will cost a lot.”

- Most of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors from Africa stated that their main motivation is to ensure their family well-being. According to Luno's research, almost half (48%) of respondents are willing to save and invest their salary in cryptocurrencies to pay for their children's education, while 43% are willing to create a starter capital for children and grandchildren, 39% for saving.

- Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz told CNN that bitcoin will make fundamental changes to the financial system. He has also urged investors not to pay attention to the volatility of digital gold, but to look at the big picture of the market. “Bubbles and manias are happening around things that change our thinking fundamentally,” Novogratz stressed.
According to the banker, cryptocurrency investors are not just interested in profit, they believe in fundamental changes in the financial system, and the growing interest in bitcoin is associated with the underlying technology.
The head of Galaxy Digital predicted the price of bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in ten years. He believes that 75% of altcoins will disappear from the market over the same period.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 2022​

EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up

The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new “surprises”) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.

You can see quite different vector behavior of the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the pandemic. Having started at 1.0635 in March 2020, the pair was already at 1.2350 in early January 2021. The weakening of the dollar has been affected by the intense pumping of the US economy with a huge dollar mass as part of the monetary stimulus (QE) policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve.

With the start of a new 2021 and the arrival of the administration of a new President Joe Biden in the White House, the market has a feeling of greater stability and the imminent winding down of QE. All the more so because macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and the labor market recovery, were encouraging. The dollar gained muscle and the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1700 by the end of March.

But dovish sentiment prevailed among the Fed's leadership, the pumping of the economy with money continued, the beginning of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program was postponed indefinitely, and one could not even think about raising the base interest rate. And the pair rose above the important psychological level 1.2000 again, reaching the height of 1.2265.

The competition between the central banks of Europe and the United States certainly did not end there. But while the ECB's rhetoric continued to be dovish, the statements of some Fed leaders already sounded a harsh hawkish note. Investors started to expect that the Fed would begin to roll back QE at the end of this year and will complete it in 2022, in order to start raising the discount rate in early 2023. And the dollar gained ground again, dropping the pair back into the 1.1700 zone.

At its September meeting, the American regulator did not announce any specific plans regarding the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program. But, if decision-making dynamics remain the same, the Fed will be ahead of the ECB by about six months.

On this basis, many experts predict the dollar will continue to strengthen in late 2021 and in the first half of 2022. In this case, the pair will continue to move south, first to support 1.1500 and then to 1.1200. Some particularly zeal bears predict the pair will even drop to the lows of March 2020.

As for the second half of 2022, according to a number of forecasts, the US economic situation will stabilize, while the “slow” Eurozone, on the contrary, will begin to gain momentum. A reduction in the European QE program and a rise in the euro interest rate could reverse the trend and return the pair to the 1.1700-1.2000 zone.

It is clear that the dynamics of the pair depends on many factors on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: political, economic, and in recent years, epidemiological. One other major player is China, which also has a strong influence on the economies of both the Old World and the New World. Therefore, it should be understood that everything said is based on a vision of the situation at the moment, and can be (and should be) subject to adjustment many times over the coming months.


Cryptocurrencies: Virtual and Real Gold

While there is a rough understanding and political and economic justification of forecasts with the major currency pair EUR/USD, things look much more complicated as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Despite the assurances of influencers, this market looks more like the epicenter of mass speculation over the past 1-1.5 years, rather than a reliable investment platform. The year is not over yet, but bitcoin has already managed to soar from $28,550 in January to $64,800 in April, then collapsed to $29,300 in July, and then repeat this rally, only on a slightly smaller scale.

The rate of the BTC/USD pair can be influenced not only by the decisions of US regulators and the Chinese government, but even the mood Elon Musk has woken up in. One of his tweets can make you a millionaire or rip you to the bone. That's why NordFX brokerage gives its clients the opportunity to make money not only on the growth, but also on the fall of cryptocurrency rates, even without having a single token in stock. Why take the risk and buy bitcoin and then sell it? After all, you can just open a sell trade right away.

Nobody knows exactly how much the reference cryptocurrency will cost. Expert opinions vary widely. Some, like Standart Chartered, see $100,000 by the end of this year, and some predict a rise to the same $100,000, but only by the end of 2022. And some, like the Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, are sure that this bubble will burst soon, burying the two trillion USD plus that the investors have invested in this market.

Much will depend on the recovery of the US economy, the pace of the winding down the monetary stimulus (QE) programme, the prospects for the Fed raising interest rates and the dynamics of treasury yields. These are factors that can severely reduce the risk appetite of institutional investors and return them to more familiar financial instruments.

For ethereum, the forecast of Standard Chartered experts is as favorable as for bitcoin and looks very optimistic. A range of $26,000-35,000 per coin was announced in an interview for Reuters. But that's not the limit either, especially if the bitcoin rate approaches $175,000 by the end of 2022.

According to a report by the major investment bank Goldman Sachs published in Forbes, the base cryptocurrency has the chance to lose its leading position, giving way to ethereum. Goldman Sachs believes that the main reason for the popularity of the main altcoin is the ability to create new applications. And also the fact that many financial instruments can be replaced on the basis of its platform. This includes, among other things, loans and other banking operations.

As for real, not digital, gold, a number of experts believe that this precious metal has yet to run out of growth potential in 2022. They do not rule out that the XAU/USD pair could break the August 2020 record and rise to $2,200-2,300 per ounce. However, the price performance of this reserve asset will also depend on investors' willingness or reluctance to take risks, as mentioned above.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Financial giant JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has previously repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, promised to fire employees trading digital assets, and called bitcoin holders fools. And now, according to Bloomberg, he smothered the first cryptocurrency to smithereens once again, but admitted that the customers of his holding believe otherwise.
“I personally think bitcoin is worth nothing,” Dimon said at the Institute of International Finance's annual meeting. “But our clients are adults and they don't agree. This is what creates markets. Therefore, if they want to be able to buy BTC, we can provide them with legal and transparent access.”
At the same time, he added that cryptocurrencies will be subject to regulation as concerns grow in Washington regarding stablecoins and the new asset class in general.

- Co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, revealed that YouTube removed his channel on the evening of October 11 while on air with popular blogger PlanB. According to Pompliano, this came after discussions about a bullish scenario for bitcoin for the next five years. He later published screenshots of emails from the service, which described the content about the first cryptocurrency as “dangerous and harmful.” Video hosting representatives felt that the channel's creators were allegedly “encouraging illegal activities.”
Pompliano said about two hours later that the YouTube channel had been restored, though "without any explanation from the company."

- 26 Israelis were detained in Tel Aviv on October 5, during a joint operation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Israeli Police on suspicion of involvement in organized financial fraud in the field of Forex and crypto. And just a week later, all 26 were released, without any special conditions of release.
As previously stated in an official statement by the Israeli police, the detainees provided false brokerage services to clients around the world, thus embezzling $7 million. Users were promised access to forex or cryptocurrency trading, which in reality did not take place, and funds were simply appropriated by the scheme organizers.
And now all the detainees, without exception, were released after a court hearing. Moreover, lawyers for earlier suspects are preparing countersuits against the nation's law enforcement agencies. However, there are reports that two more new crypto-fraud cases involving Israeli citizens are being investigated in the neighboring country of Cyprus.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin criticized El Salvador's decision to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. He stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked. "
“Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit.

- Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, called bitcoin digital gold and compared his bet on it to buying Amazon stock during the dot-com bubble crash. According to the billionaire, he acquired shares of the tech giant Amazon at an average price of $17 more than 20 years ago. The first cryptocurrency cost him an average of $500 per coin.
“Bitcoin is much less risky at $43,000 than at $300. Now it is recognized, a huge amount of venture capital has gone into it, all the big banks are involved,” Miller said. However, the billionaire advised investors who are not too deeply versed in cryptocurrency to invest no more than 1% of funds in digital assets. Regarding altcoins, Miller noted that the chances of succeeding with more than “10,000 existing tokens and other” are extremely small,” although “Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some other coins will probably exist for a while.”

- Research Institute Capgemini conducted a survey around the world to analyze the current payment situation. In addition, the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks were studied.
Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the research institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees. Cryptocurrency credit cards will become more widespread. At the same time, the researchers concluded that the prospects for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are vague, due to the ambiguous position of governments around the world.

- According to Coinmarketcap data, Apple Corporation currently has the largest capitalization ($2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and bitcoin is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $2 trillion, and the capitalization of BTC is already $1 trillion.
What can the above statistics indicate? According to the authors of the publication in Freedman Club Crypto News, only that the flagship cryptocurrency has the potential to not only bypass corporations in terms of capitalization, but also entire sectors of the world economy.

- The Swiss non-profit think tank 2B4CH has proposed making bitcoin one of the reserve assets of the Bank of Switzerland and reflecting this in the country's Constitution.
2B4CH was founded in Geneva in 2017. It conducts research on how cryptocurrencies and blockchain can affect society, and what changes they can bring to the financial sector. And now 2B4CH has announced on Twitter the launch of a “popular initiative” aimed at collecting 100,000 signatures to amend Article 99, paragraph 3, of the Swiss Constitution. In particular, 2B4CH proposes that the Central Bank of that country should be able to store bitcoin as a reserve asset alongside gold. And in case of successful implementation of the initiative, Switzerland, according to the organizers of the plebiscite, will become a good example for other countries.

- An employee of the US Navy and his wife were arrested on suspicion of selling classified data for cryptocurrency. This is reported on the website of the American Ministry of Justice. According to authorities, nuclear engineer Jonathan Toebbe sold information about the design of American nuclear submarines with the help of his wife, allegedly to a representative of a foreign country. The latter turned out to be an undercover FBI agent.
The agent sent Toebbe $10,000 in cryptocurrency in June (according to CoinDesk, Monero). After receiving the payment, the couple hid the secret SD card inside the peanut butter sandwich in a pre-arranged location. The agent then sent them another $20,000.
Toebbe hid another SD card in a gum box in August, receiving $70,000 for the decryption key. And more recently, in October, the engineer made another cache with another map containing data on submarines, after which he and his wife were arrested.

- American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 18 - 22, 2021​

EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?

The situation is actually ambiguous. Some experts expected a much more powerful correction further north. But it didn't happen: the pair managed to rise only to 1.1624 and ended the five-day run at 1.1600.

The week's data show that the US economy continues to recover fairly quickly, increasing to almost 100% the chance that the Fed will start tapering monetary stimulus (QE) program next month.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 293,000 for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (down 36K against 14,000 forecast). And the number of those already receiving benefits, with the forecast of 78 thousand, decreased by 134 thousand: from 2.72 to 2.59 million. Producer prices also showed an increase, from 8.3% to 8.6% (with a forecast of 8.5%). Year-on-year, therefore, inflation of these prices showed the most powerful uptick in history.

It should be noted that the Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator for consumer prices. And consequently, inflation can be expected to continue rising, bringing the beginning of the end of QE closer. Especially as retail sales released on Friday 15th October were also in the green zone: plus 0.7% versus the forecast minus 0.2%.

And here the question arises: if everything is so good in the US economy, why hasn't the pair continued its precipitous decline? Grasping at straws, euro-bulls are likely still hoping that the winding down of the fiscal stimulus program will be delayed at least until December. This is supported by the jump in stock indices: the S&P500 rose 3 per cent in the second half of the week (its highest gain in seven months) and the Dow Jones rose 3.4 per cent. This index has not seen such a big break in almost three months.

So what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Continuation of the downtrend after the correction? A stronger euro and an upward trend reversal? Or respite in the side channel?

The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among oscillators, 55% are red, 15% green, and the remaining 30% are neutral grey. There is a lack of unity among trend indicators as well: 65% of them point south and 35% are looking north. The graphical analysis draws the pair's rise to 1.1725, then a fall back and move in the range of 1.1585-1.1725.

As for analysts, 20% favour further decline of the pair, 50% are for its growth, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Support levels are 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1625, 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

For next week's events, the European Council meeting on Thursday October 21 and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole on October 22 can be noted. The decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday, October 20, may also rock the pair.

GBP/USD: The Victory Is with the Pound So Far

Unlike its European neighbour, the British pound continues to strengthen actively against the dollar: the GBP/USD pair showed a 360-point gain (from 1.3412 to 1.3772) since September 29 and finished at 1.3744. The reason for this dynamic is understandable and lies in the Bank of England's intention to start tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates considerably in the foreseeable future.

As we have already written, according to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First is the UK's success in the fight against COVID-19. Secondly, the reduction of political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on the independence of Scotland. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to Citibank analysts, are “well placed to confront Fed policy”, which is what we have seen during October.

However, once the Fed moves to wind down its QE programme, things could change dramatically in favour of the dollar. 60% of experts predict at the moment that the pair will head south again to test the supports at 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. 20% of analysts vote for the continuation of the upward trend (resistance levels and targets of bulls 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000). And 20% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, predict a sideways trend.

Among the indicators, a significant advantage is still on the side of the green. 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators indicate the continuation of the uptrend on the daily timeframe. 25% of oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, and 15% are in a neutral position.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, attention should be paid to such an important measure of inflation as the UK CPI (due on Wednesday October 20), as well as Markit's UK services PMI to be released on Friday October 22.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Per Aspera Ad Astra

There is such an expression in Latin, Per aspera ad astra, the authorship is attributed to the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Anna Seneca. It literally translates as "Through hardships to the stars” and means "Through difficulties to victory." This is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls won.

Most experts expected that they would not calm down until they took the 112.00 height by storm. And now, finally, their months-long efforts have succeeded. And in a great way. After jumping 222 points over the week, the pair reached a height of 114.45 on Friday October 15, and the last chord was slightly lower at 114.21, near the upper limit of the trade range since the beginning of 2017.

Such a fiasco of the Japanese currency is fully consistent with its role as a haven currency and reflects a stable inverse relationship between its rate and the demand for risks. The growing interest of investors in the American and Japanese stock markets (the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 grew in parallel with the S&P 500) dealt a strong blow to the yen. A pullback in energy prices, which the country mostly imports, supported the market's appetite for Japanese stocks as well.

According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the weak yen supports exporters, but inflates import costs for a number of companies and consumers. At the same time, he said that the stability in the Forex market is important for the government, and it closely monitors the impact of exchange rates on the Japanese economy. But the minister refused to comment directly on the current situation.

However, the yen's fall in two weeks of October looks too fast against the background of the dynamics of the last five months. And this could be the reason for a strong correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. So 70% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the 111.00-112.00 zone within the next three to five weeks. However, the bulls will have the advantage in the short term. According to 55% of experts, the continued interest of investors in the stock market could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.

At the time of writing this review, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 indicate further growth in the pair. 25% of oscillators signal that it is overbought and a possible correction. The resistance levels are 114.55 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.80, 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC's New Target Is $68,000

China-related news almost reversed the bitcoin trend south again on Wednesday, October 13. Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has announced, following other exchanges, that it will stop serving Chinese clients and remove the yuan from the list of supported currencies as of December 31.

Prior to Beijing's repressions, residents of this country formed one of the major parts of the crypto community, with the country leading bitcoin mining. Back in 2020, its share was 50-60% of the global hash rate. The situation has changed dramatically since then and, according to Cambridge University, the top three in crypto mining are now the United States (35.4%), Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11.2%).

If you look at the map, you can see that the last two of these countries have a land border with China, which made it possible to move numerous mining equipment there. As a result, illegal miners in some Russian border regions have increased annual electricity consumption by 160%.

Time will tell whether China will win or lose from the imposed bans. This applies to other countries as well, some of which seek to tighten legislation in this area as much as possible, while others are very loyal to digital assets. For example, Director of US National Intelligence John Ratcliffe sent a letter to the SEC chairman last year asking him not to restrict the activities of US miners. There is no need to talk about El Salvador, which recognized bitcoin as the official currency.

Interestingly, this decision was heavily criticized by ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. “Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [El Salvador President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit. And he stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked."

The Capgemini Research Institute is also concerned with the question of how widely cryptocurrencies have entered the life of ordinary people. In addition to surveys conducted in many countries, it examined statistics from the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks.

Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees.

If the world's leading powers don't start chasing bitcoin after China, the flagship cryptocurrency has a lot of chances to to bypass leading corporations and even entire sectors of the world economy in terms of capitalization.

According to Coinmarketcap, the largest capitalization currently belongs to Apple ($ 2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and BTC is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the time of writing the review is $2.42 trillion, and the capitalization of BTChas already reached $1.12 trillion (dominance index 46.24%).

Bitcoin continued to delight investors over the past week. Over the seven days, the BTC/USD pair rose 16% to reach a local high of $62,880. Projections supported by many experts suggest that it will soon test the historic high of $64,810 on April 14. If successful, taking into account the statistical volatility, the pair will reach the $68,000, followed by a serious correction associated with massive profit taking.

However, despite a possible pullback, the mid-term outlook for this pair remains positive. The next major resistance level is located in the $80,000-81,000 area. American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, Kraken experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from the Fear Zone to the Greed Zone in the two weeks of October to reach 71 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Scammers launched a series of fake broadcasts on YouTube on the evening of October 18, a few hours before the official start of the Apple Unleashed press conference, in which they invited users to take part in the distribution of cryptocurrencies. Viewers were encouraged to send 0.1 BTC to 5 BTC or 3 ETH to 500 ETH to the specified wallet and allegedly get back the double amount of the cryptocurrencies. The fake stream was carried out on a channel that completely copied the Apple's account, which resulted in one of the fake presentations gathering about 30,000 participants.
Scammers often use YouTube to promote fake cryptocurrency giveaways. As a reminder, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak already joined a class action against YouTube and Google in July 2020 over malicious actions, but the court found that the platform did not carry liability for materials posted by third parties.

- The founder of the Brazilian crypto exchange Foxbit, Joao Canhada, acquired 1 BTC for his daughter on the day of her birth, Cointelegraph tells the family story. “I bought bitcoin for her not just as a gift, but as a way to invest in the new economy. At that time, it was estimated at 5,000 Brazilian reais (about $915),” admits the perspicacious father. After just four years, bitcoin has climbed to $63,000 and the investment has generated a 6,800% return. Now we can only guess what the profit will be when the girl comes of age.

- American software architect and entrepreneur Jack Dorsey revealed that payment giant Square is considering creating a device to mine the first open-source cryptocurrency.
In Dorsey's view, mining should be easier and more accessible to everyone in order to improve the resilience of the bitcoin network. The equipment supply is currently concentrated in just a few companies. For this reason, the creator of Square and Twitter is thinking about removing barriers for miners.

- The city of North Vancouver in the Canadian province of British Columbia expects to provide heat to the city's residential and industrial buildings by mining bitcoin from 2022.
Municipal energy company Lonsdale Energy Corporation has entered into an agreement with mining firm MintGreen to provide a new carbon-free source of energy for the district heating system instead of burning natural gas. According to the press release, the immersion-cooled cryptocurrency mining rigs convert over 95% of the electricity consumed into heat, which can be used for heating and industrial processes.
“Cryptocurrency miners operate at full capacity 365 days a year, creating a unique opportunity to provide a reliable and sustainable base load for the North Vancouver district heating system,” the statement said. Per 1 MW, the use of mining will prevent up to 20,000 tons of greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.

- Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling the digital asset market an economic bubble. And now he is exploring the possibility of opening a short position in cryptocurrency. This short-run specialist asked his Twitter followers how to do this.
“Okay, I haven't done this before, how can you short on cryptocurrency? Do you need to secure a loan? Is there a short rebate? Can there be a margin call? “, Michael Berry wondered.

- A favorable macroeconomic environment, good network performance and the approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US will help BTC hit new all-time highs this quarter, according to a Finder poll of 50 fintech industry experts.
The survey was attended by representatives of Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors from universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. According to them, the BTC exchange rate will peak at slightly above $80,000 over the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will finish the year around $71,400.
The levels indicated by these experts were well below the forecasts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg analysts, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

- The pace of institutional participation in BTC has accelerated over the past 5 weeks, which is an important sign of the bull market return. According to popular crypto analyst Willy Woo, the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle.
This analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

- Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers like Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.
Yusko repeated his prediction In another interview with CNBC. He also praised the main crypto asset as superior to gold due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins. “This is a classic supply and demand option. One of the nice things about bitcoin as an asset is that it has a limited supply. We know how many bitcoins will be mined every day for the next 140 years."
By the time BTC reaches the $250,000 mark, Jusko says, its market cap will be equal to that of gold.

- One of the first bitcoin investors, billionaire and CEO of venture capital firm Social Capital, Chamat Palihapitiya, believes that the United States will no longer be able to ban bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency. In his view, the cryptocurrency market has become too big for US authorities to stifle the emerging industry:
“You can't just take the $2 trillion capitalization off the face of the earth,” Palihapitiya wrote. “Bitcoin is not going anywhere and is currently too institutionalized. There are already quite a few organized pools of capital within this ecosystem.
I can give an example of a simple high-frequency trading by Jump Trading. They posted several photos of a group of hired newbies and a tutorial on programming in Solana. It was an example of bringing people on their part. Therefore, when there are people with big finance and they are ready to invest money in it, the capitalization of the crypto market will grow to $6 trillion, and then to $10 trillion. This is why Powell and Gensler had to voice that they are not going to ban cryptocurrencies. In fact, they know it is impossible. "
As a reminder, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in early October that he had no plans to ban cryptocurrencies. A few days later, SEC chief Gary Gensler practically repeated those words. And it was last Thursday that Senator Cynthia Lammis spoke in the Senate, saying that digital currencies could help countries like the United States cope with an impending crisis when the state runs out of cash. “Thank God for bitcoin, another non-fiat currency that surpasses the irresponsibility of governments, including our own,” exclaimed Ms Senator from a high rostrum.

- Over 99% of bitcoins in circulation bring profit to their holders. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. According to the published chart, only 0.98% of the coins (about 186.000 BTC) were bought at a price above $59.000. At the same time, open interest in bitcoin options has risen sharply to the levels of last May-April. The increase from September was +107% (from $6.3 billion to $12.2 billion). Glassnode experts also revealed that nearly $325 million is put on bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of the year.
As for the leading altcoin, according to Glassnode, the number of Ethereum investors holding at least 1 ETH in their crypto wallets has renewed its all-time high, reaching 1.34 million addresses. There were just over 1 million of them at the beginning of the year. In total, the Ethereum network has processed transactions worth more than $6.2 trillion over the past 12 months, 369% more than in 2020.

- The mysterious creator of the bitcoin network, Satoshi Nakamoto, was included In mid-April in the list of the 20 richest people on the planet, but his fortune decreased dramatically after the fall in the price of BTC. However, Nakamoto regained the lost ground this week after the price of the first cryptocurrency topped $60,000.
It is generally believed among crypto experts that Nakamoto has about 1 million bitcoins, some call a smaller figure, some larger. The Whale Alert report calls the figure of 1.125 million BTC. Thus, as of october 17, 2021, Nakamoto owns approximately $60.7 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), $625 million in Bitcoin cash (BCH), $169 million in Bitcoinsv (BSV), and $191 million in Ecash (formerly known as BCHA or Bitcoin ABC). In total, this amounts to $60.9 billion.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 25 - 29, 2021​

EUR/USD: In a State of Uncertainty

When giving their forecast a week ago, 20% of analysts were in favour of a decline in EUR/USD, 50% voted for it to rise, and 30% were neutral. As a result, 80% of those who pointed north and east were right. After starting at 1.1600, the pair first rose to 1.1668, then fell to 1.1616, and then moved sideways in this channel. After Friday's speech by the Fed Governor, the pair dropped to the bottom of this trading range but finished almost in its middle at 1.1643.

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell said it was time to start reducing asset purchases but added that it was not yet time to raise rates. In his view, high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but the central bank expects it to return to the 2% target.

The figures coming in the week from the US labour market could be considered positive. This was due to a larger revision of the previous data on repeated claims for unemployment benefits, from 2.593K to 2.603K. Thus, the current number of 2.481K showed a decrease of 122K instead of the forecast 118K.

Such "tricky" mathematics improved data on primary benefit claims as well. As a result of revising previous results, they decreased by 6K instead of increasing by 2K.

However, all this positive has not helped the dollar much, as US Treasury yields remain around 2.15%, while the probability of its growth towards 3.0% remains.

Weaker Markit PMI in German and Eurozone manufacturing sectors could push the EUR/USD pair down on Friday 22 October. But they turned out to be multi-colored. The European index turned into the red, dropping from 56.2 to 54.3 against a forecast of 55.2. But the index of the main locomotive of the European housekeeper, Germany, on the contrary, is green at 58.2 against the forecast 56.5.

The fact that the US labour market continues to improve should, in the end, provide more support to the dollar. Fed Governor Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the monetary stimulus (QE) program is aimed at stabilizing the labor market, among other things. This task, although not fully accomplished, is very close to the goal. Consequently, there is nothing preventing the Fed from starting to reduce monetary stimulus in the near future.

So, what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Whereas 55% of the oscillators on D1 were painted red, 15% green and 30% neutral grey a week ago, the picture has changed now. 50% of the indicators are pointing up, 20% have taken a neutral position, 15% are looking down, and the remaining 15% are signaling that the pair is overbought. As for trend indicators, their readings have also been affected by the sideways movement of recent days, resulting in a draw of 50% by 50%.

The overwhelming majority of analysts expect the dollar to strengthen by the end of the year. But their opinions are almost equally divided about the forecast for the coming week. 45% of experts vote for the bullish scenario, as much as bearish, and 10% have taken a neutral stance.

Support levels are 1.1615, 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1670 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for next week's events, the Eurozone Bank Lending Report which will be published on Tuesday 26 October should be noted. Capital and durable goods orders are due from the US on Wednesday October 27. We are expecting quite a lot of macro statistics on Thursday and Friday, including consumer markets and GDP data from the Eurozone, Germany and the United States. In addition, the European Central Bank will meet on October 28. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference and commentary by the ECB management on monetary policy is of much greater interest.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Last week's GBP/USD chart is very similar to the EUR/USD chart: sideways movement with some advantage to bulls and finish just above the start level, at 1.3758. This stems from the absence of many serious drivers from the other side of the Atlantic, as well as from the statistics from the UK itself.

UK consumer price growth slowed from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, which is a good signal for investors fearing global inflation. However, the market has hardly reacted to these figures, keeping a close eye on gas prices, as the energy crisis is now a major threat not only for the United Europe but also for the UK that separated from it. Inflation is certainly very important, but the country is repeating the path already taken by the Eurozone and the United States, where it was followed by strong growth following a slight decline.

The Markit Business Activity Index (PMI) in the British services sector published on Friday, October 22, rose from 55.4 to 58.0 instead of the expected decline. This didn't help the pound. The dollar, with the help of Jerome Powell, who made a speech shortly before the markets closed, strengthened not only against the euro, but also against the British currency.

Unlike its European counterpart, the pound had been growing since September 29. And this could not but affect the readings of the indicators on D1, among which the advantage is still on the side of the green. Among the oscillators, these are 55%, 25% are grey and 20% signal that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 60% are looking north, 40% have already turned south.

As far as experts are concerned, there is no discernible advantage: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 25% for its decline, and 40% for movement in the side channel.

The supports are located at levels 1.3740, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and bull targets are 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000

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