Best way of day trading - 2652 theory of trading

Status
Not open for further replies.

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#41
Can you pleae explain what exactly due you mean by wrong tick ?
I think, it means a freak trade - happens mostly during opening when due to stock-specific news & AMO (after market hours order), there's a big gap up or down, along with some freak value.
Saw this recently on first day of news-reaction in case of Satyam.
The Low, recorded by 10:00, was never broken throughout the rest of the day & it became LOD!!!
(Futures)
 

dhiraj11378

Well-Known Member
#42
Dear Dhiraj,

Mere mention of Maths, Nifty & intraday trading over here, and I couldn't stop myself from doing some back-testing.
I followed all the rules which you mentioned in the 1st two posts of this thread (as you name them, the theory part). Besides 10:15am, I was not sure of the second backup time. Found 10:35am in another post, and hence took these two time periods; 10:15 & 10:35.

Being a trader of Nifty only, I back-tested this "theory" / system on Nifty Futures from 4-Dec-08 (had visible intraday data only from that date).
I know you mentioned that Nifty Spot is appropriate, but sometimes the vague/invisible opening high or low of spot (due to NSE policy) can upset the whole calculation; and most of the days will be impossible to trade.

I have made an excel file, and the whole exercise took me not more than 1 hour.

Results:

First of all, Dhiraj, according to me, you deserve this
& a big THANKS for sharing this system with all of us.
I have always been fascinated by the idea of involving MATHEMATICS with TRADING. (Actually, nearly all of technical tools (MAs, RSI, etc) involve maths at each stage, also same with Fibonacci numbers.)
With 3 factor values (0.4333, 0.7666, 1.355) & simple High & Low data, you have made an attempt to determine entry levels.

I don't want to delve much into the WHYs, HOWs & WHY-NOTs of the method. All I can say is that, the results are simply too good.

In the excel file and from your theory part, I have categorised the whole thing into 7 scenarios:

  1. Scenario 1 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; AND HITTING TARGET (Opposite trade not triggered)
  2. Scenario 2 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; AND HITTING SL; BUT SAME TRADE IS TRIGGERED AGAIN FOR ENHANCED TARGET; DAY ENDS BREAKEVEN OR IN PROFIT
  3. Scenario 3 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; AND HITTING SL; NO OTHER TRADE TRIGGERED; DAY ENDS IN LOSS; BUT NEXT DAY IS IN GOOD PROFIT
  4. Scenario 4 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; AND HITTING SL; NO OTHER TRADE TRIGGERED; DAY ENDS IN LOSS (NEXT DAY ALSO IN LOSS)
  5. Scenario 5 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; and hitting TARGET; SECOND TRADE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION ALSO TRIGGERS & THAT TOO HITS TARGET
  6. Scenario 6 = Trigger of Initial or Modified Trade; and hitting SL; SECOND TRADE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION ALSO TRIGGERS BUT THAT HITS TARGET
  7. Scenario 7 = NO TRADES TRIGGERED AT ALL


2 things to be noted here:
  • Theory says Scenario 4 is not possible
  • Theory does not advise going for or trading Scenarios 5 & 6, as Dhiraj mentions in the thread.


Here's the result of last 20days, categorised scenario-wise:

Code:
Scenario	No. of Days
   1	            12
   2	             4
   3	             0
   4	             0
   5	             1
   6	             1 
   7	             2
[B]TOTAL[/B]              [B]20[/B]
Results speak for themselves.
Dhiraj, from Nifty & myself, you & your theory get
from me.

Simply outstanding & unique way of involving MATHS with Nifty levels. You have become a MATH-E-MAGICIAN for me now..



The excel file is attached for perusal, and can also be used during live trades by someone who knows the basics of excel & simply copying-pasting the formulae.



hi sunil, i would like to thank u for this post
i just want people should earn from this .
and i personally thing that if this is useful then everbody should study this method
i believed that its only maths and nothing else in intraday .
but one thing i would like to know from u is the point u mentioned that (I know you mentioned that Nifty Spot is appropriate, but sometimes the vague/invisible opening high or low of spot (due to NSE policy) can upset the whole calculation; and most of the days will be impossible to trade)
i just want that u put some light on this point
till today i have never traded in futures and options and to be frank i am not aware of how its works .spot is my stronghold .
 
Last edited:

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#43
but one thing i would like to know from u is the point u mentioned that (I know you mentioned that Nifty Spot is appropriate, but sometimes the vague/invisible opening high or low of spot (due to NSE policy) can upset the whole calculation; and most of the days will be impossible to trade)
i just want that u put some light on this point

till today i have never traded in futures and options and to be frank i am not aware of how its works .spot is my stronghold .

When such a scenario comes during live trading hours, I'll post it over here..



The problem is only with Nifty Spot (Cash) price & not with stocks in the cash market.
During my beginner days (or even now, when I feel like taking a small position in stocks - rarely trade in stocks), I realised that one big advantage Cash mkt. has over fut. market is that there's flexibility in lot size...
If you have capacity of buying only 100 shares & lot size in Futures is 400, then it's better to stick to your money management rules, and go in for cash market....as it is, for intraday trading, brokers allow to leverage in cash mkts too...
Once can add bit-by-bit, & one can even exit bit-by-bit as per levels/prices.

From intraday trading point of view, Futures has better participation/liquidity in the same stock & if you deal in large no. of shares, then it's better to switch to Futures, as there's very remote chance of slippage in price (not getting the exact price which you wanted)...
(obviously, one can also carry the position over-night, but that's outside the purview of intraday trading).

Options is not at all suitable for intraday trading.

There's also Mini Nifty Future (lot size=20) along with regular Nifty Future (lot size=50), if someone wants to have a smaller lot size/contract size in case of Nifty.
This feature is still not available in case of stocks, where contract sizes are about Rs 3 lac & above....

I'll share one personal experience here about what exactly prompted me to shift from cash market to futures market in case of stocks (nifty came in my trading life & radar after 2 months down the line of my learning phase)

As aforesaid, I began with A group stocks in Cash market for intraday trading. I had fixed trade value of each stock at Rs 50,000 per trade. 1% target = Rs 500...
That means, if i want atleast Rs 3000 at end of day, I would require 6 profitable trades of Rs 500 each. (I had no system or any reason, no CA / TA knowledge - I still dread about those days :eek:)
Any loss-making trade would eat the profit of earlier profitable trade... Because of that, I had to over-trade sometimes beyond 6 trades.... and obviously, most days would begin well & end in bad losses :(
Without bringing in emotions & other learning phase, & coming back to the point, I experienced that sometimes, in Cash market, for orders of Rs. 50000, my order used to be not fully executed due to lack of opposite -side order at my LIMIT PRICE order. Sometimes, if I had purchased 100 shares, then if I had to sell them @ say Rs 120.50, I would notice that only 75 shares used to get executed @ 120.50 & balance 25 used to remain in the system due to lack of demand @ that price.
This was more hurting when Rs 120.50 was my stop loss price, and the next available price for balance 25 shares was Rs 120/- or less... increasing the loss.
On some occasions, I used to forget I have such balance shares which are not yet squared-off.

I left share trading thinking it is not my cup of tea. During my two-months break, I came to know about Futures.... I saw distinct advantages over Cash market...
1. Contract size is atleast 3lacs, depending on the scrip. So, instead of playing football with 6 scrips of Rs 50000/- each in cash market, why not focus on ONLY ONE scrip in futures market with contract size about Rs 3 lac, and with ONLY ONE PROFITABLE TRADE OF 1%, MY DAY'S TARGET OF Rs 3000/- is taken care of. THIS WAS THE MAIN ATTRACTION TO ME. JUST FOCUS & CONCENTRATE ON ONLY ONE SCRIP & TRY TO JUICE OUT 1% OF MOVEMENT IN ABOUT 5 TRADING HOURS (ie juicing out 5-10 minutes of price movement within 300+ minutes of trading in one session). Playing the fishing game, waiting patiently with the fishing rod & striking when the iron is hot (mostly this happens post 1:30pm, as most of you must have realised)

2. Since lot sizes are fixed, very less chance of price slippage, as illustrated above.

3. More leveraging possible.

4. (not connected with intraday trading)= Possible to carry trades over-night, which is not possible in cash market, especially if you have a shorts position.


The reason no. 1, as mentioned above, drove me to this forum for learning Chart Analysis & Technical tools, and fine-tuning the art of intraday trading, so that my one, single trade hits the target, and I switch off the system at that very moment - no over-trading., or spend the rest of time for screen-trading experience.

I am not telling that this happens in Cash market only, or Futures market is superior. I have simply shared my experience and my views. It is subjective & also depends on one's learning stage...
As mentioned in 1st para, I believe that one should
"learn in cash market - earn in futures market"
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#44
i believed that its only maths and nothing else in intraday .
Since you have used the word, "believed" and not "believe", I hope you don't have the same belief today....
Applying maths for intraday trading can help only that much....
you can extract the real juice, if you have decent chart analysing knowledge & good real-time trading experience...
Your system, at first look, defies logic... Any experienced will feel this on face value... I gave it a try, coz it involved maths, and i liked the idea... no harm in paper-trading & testing. It still requires one more month of testing from my side for self-assurance.


Again, thanks a lot for this unique system.
:)


BTW, (off-topic), I understand 11378 in your ID, but I fail to understand why did you name this as "2652" theory... what's the reason behind this number???
 
#45
Hi Sunil,

As per your illustration most of the trade trigerred for 10.35 High and Low. In case of 10.15 trade we wait till 10.45.Incase of 10.35 trade till what time we should wait for the trade to triger? or to modify the trade.
 
#46
Hi Sunil,

As per your illustration most of the trade trigerred for 10.35 High and Low. In case of 10.15 trade we wait till 10.45.Incase of 10.35 trade till what time we should wait for the trade to triger? or to modify the trade.
Sorry Sunil,

Misintepreted. Got the answer. Thanks for the excel sheet.

Regds,

Sachin.
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#48
someone sent me an anonymous query:

hi sunil, can you please tell me how could you get the intraday prices for all these days, also how could find prices for prev days, exactly at 10.15
I don't have any charting software. I rely on free web-based services like investbulls.com or icharts.in for historical charts. (No such problem for realtime intraday charts, as charting facility is inbuilt in the broker-provided trading terminal, like Religare's RACE Pro Sharekhan's Trade Tiger & Angel Broking's TradeAnywhere)
One cannot zoom in on the period (like November 2008) in such websites... so, data clarity was there only from 4-Dec, which i attached in the file.
Exact time Highs & lows can be seen by switching to 15min intraday charts...

Those who have a dedicated charting software (like metastock, etc) + realtime data subscription, can backtest the system using data before Dec 08 too...
 

bandlab2

Well-Known Member
#50
even today, nity trade resulted in profit. buy at 3118, target at 3134. trade initiated in last 1/2 hr . what happens trade is initiated but neith SL, Target got hit before close ? close the trade by EOD ?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.