Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1485*7896*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.40
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle
Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7934, successful cross over above 7977 will target 8023-8097-8159. Down trend conformation 7858 successful fall below 7815 will trigger fall till 7768-7695-7633.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7996 and all down move invites short covering at 7796 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7796 to 7996
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7934 with initial stop loss of 7858 for initial target 7996 or selling future below 7858 with stop loss 7935 for target 7795 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility
September 2015 result analysis
ALL SEPTEMBER POSTS YOU WILL GET IN THIS FORUM
My 4th week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved till 1.236 target 7724: it gave down trend break out on Tuesday and achieved the 1.236 down side target on Wednesday. Though 8011 breakout given on Tuesday opening but did not sustain.
My 3rd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved fully: it gave trend break out on Monday and achieved the final target 8057 today. Today’s high and our calculation is exactly inline.
My 2nd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.
My 1st week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1485*7896*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.40
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle
HTML:
1sdprice range 162.3814
LTP 7896
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci
0.236 38.3264 7934.326 7857.674
0.382 62.0368 7958.037 7833.963
0.5 81.2 7977.2 7814.8
0.618 100.3632 7996.363 7795.637
0.786 127.6464 8023.646 7768.354
0.888 144.2112 8040.211 7751.789
1.236 200.7264 8096.726 7695.274
1.618 262.7632 8158.763 7633.237Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7996 and all down move invites short covering at 7796 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7796 to 7996
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7934 with initial stop loss of 7858 for initial target 7996 or selling future below 7858 with stop loss 7935 for target 7795 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility
September 2015 result analysis
ALL SEPTEMBER POSTS YOU WILL GET IN THIS FORUM
My 4th week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved till 1.236 target 7724: it gave down trend break out on Tuesday and achieved the 1.236 down side target on Wednesday. Though 8011 breakout given on Tuesday opening but did not sustain.
My 3rd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved fully: it gave trend break out on Monday and achieved the final target 8057 today. Today’s high and our calculation is exactly inline.
My 2nd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.
My 1st week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.
