This market has shrugged off every bit of negative news, but there are major storms ahead.
Political:
The revelations from Arnab Goswami’s chat messages go all the way to the top of the government - because not many other people would have had advance knowledge of Balakot strikes.
I believe this could actually hit the market at its weakest spot - because we are just days away from the budget.
Vaccine:
The negative news from vaccinations killing many people in Norway and the resistance to Covaxin by many people, could blow up into a major issue.
The vaccine was the primary hope for normalcy - and if that breaks, things could get ugly.
Valuations:
We are at 40 times earnings for Nifty. This rally is getting stretched, and there doesn’t seem to be much rationale for current levels.
While I like some stocks, they have run up so much, it doesn’t seem worthwhile to hold anything at these levels.
Last year we saw markets rallying strongly from May onwards - which is opposite of the typical “Sell in May, and go away” theme.
Which begs the question - will we see reversal of the typical January Effect theme? Would it be wise to sell in January?
At least it’s beginning to look that way.
Political:
The revelations from Arnab Goswami’s chat messages go all the way to the top of the government - because not many other people would have had advance knowledge of Balakot strikes.
I believe this could actually hit the market at its weakest spot - because we are just days away from the budget.
Vaccine:
The negative news from vaccinations killing many people in Norway and the resistance to Covaxin by many people, could blow up into a major issue.
The vaccine was the primary hope for normalcy - and if that breaks, things could get ugly.
Valuations:
We are at 40 times earnings for Nifty. This rally is getting stretched, and there doesn’t seem to be much rationale for current levels.
While I like some stocks, they have run up so much, it doesn’t seem worthwhile to hold anything at these levels.
Last year we saw markets rallying strongly from May onwards - which is opposite of the typical “Sell in May, and go away” theme.
Which begs the question - will we see reversal of the typical January Effect theme? Would it be wise to sell in January?
At least it’s beginning to look that way.