Hi everybody,
This is my first posting. I am trading for two years in F&O and not interested that much in equities. And the returns also not that much favourable.
I have been trying to forecast prices using TA for last four to five years. But still not able to find the differences between Charts generated by Random numbers in Excel (Without Volume) and equity prices.
Recently I have generated some charts in Excel, with Staring price as 100 and adding (2*Random number(B/w 0 and 1 minus 0.5) to get the next day price. After I do that for 10000 points I put that data in Metastock and get the weekly Chart and download the Weekly data, to get the open high low close. When I check with that with my analysis tools, This data is still having a trend, looking like having elliott waves sometime, obeying candles rules sometimes. I am afraid whether am I sitting in front of a monitor and spending time in the name of RESEARCH.
Cud anyboby help me by clearing my doubts
1) Could stock market can be really forecasted?
2) If fundamental analysis really makes sense, then while considering and analysisng the data for five years, if the data were really good, why does the stock has not reacted in the five years and why should it react after we analyse?
Also, When the stock prices react to News very fast, what is the use of watching the news when we can not use it?
3) If Teachnical analysis is meaningful that what is the diffrenences b/w random numbers and real price charts?
Pls Help
This is my first posting. I am trading for two years in F&O and not interested that much in equities. And the returns also not that much favourable.
I have been trying to forecast prices using TA for last four to five years. But still not able to find the differences between Charts generated by Random numbers in Excel (Without Volume) and equity prices.
Recently I have generated some charts in Excel, with Staring price as 100 and adding (2*Random number(B/w 0 and 1 minus 0.5) to get the next day price. After I do that for 10000 points I put that data in Metastock and get the weekly Chart and download the Weekly data, to get the open high low close. When I check with that with my analysis tools, This data is still having a trend, looking like having elliott waves sometime, obeying candles rules sometimes. I am afraid whether am I sitting in front of a monitor and spending time in the name of RESEARCH.
Cud anyboby help me by clearing my doubts
1) Could stock market can be really forecasted?
2) If fundamental analysis really makes sense, then while considering and analysisng the data for five years, if the data were really good, why does the stock has not reacted in the five years and why should it react after we analyse?
Also, When the stock prices react to News very fast, what is the use of watching the news when we can not use it?
3) If Teachnical analysis is meaningful that what is the diffrenences b/w random numbers and real price charts?
Pls Help