GOOD PROFIT: Hedged nifty positions with straddle...

how do you find this strategy....


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linkon7

Well-Known Member
#1
This is the modified version of a strategy I played and the progress is documented in this thread...

http://www.traderji.com/options/27603-nifty-straddle-target-whole-premium.html

Now, the strategy has become a bit complex and the old rules no longer apply. There were certain design flaws and the rules have been modified so that I can add to my profit without having to add extra risk. I find this is to be the safest and most profitable way to play nifty positions.

The process might sound a bit complicated, but making money in this market is never simple and easy. there is no short cut.

last month i was able to gain 34 thousand by using this strategy but a good amount of it was luck. I acheved my targeted profit early and i exited.

I have initiated the following positions yesterday, on 21st April’09


-- Nifty long on 2 lots at 3402
-- Nifty 3400 PE may 2 lot sold at 215
-- Nifty 3400 CE may 2 lots sold at 230

Total investment about 1,25,000 /-
Profit target : 40,000 plus


How I want to play these positions…



shorting straddles (i.e. selling both calls and puts of the same strike price) is a neutral strategy where the expectation is that market will remain range bound and at the end of the series, you get to keep a portion of the premium that u receive.
for example,
I shorted ‘3400 call May’ at 222
and shorted ‘3400 put May’ at 203
total premium received = 445

my lower break even is 3400 - 445 = 2955
and upper break even is 3400 + 445 = 3845

If nifty closes between 2955 and 3845 when the series closes on 28th May’09, I stand to make a profit.

Now my target is to use this 445 points as my hedge, so every time bad luck happens, I end up loosing some of the targeted profit. It’ll take a lot of misfortune for me to loose 445 points playing nifty. And if I am lucky, I can add to that 445 points. Let me explain how…

Below 3400, I will short nifty and above 3400 I will go long.

Below 3400, the nifty shorts and short 3400 put act like a covered put and the amount of points I gain by shorting nifty will be marginally nullified by the loss on shorting 3400 put. But the other leg, 3400 call will loose value more rapidly and ultimately bring the straddle to a profit.

And likewise, above 3400, it becomes a covered call and the amount of points I gain by going long on nifty will be marginally nullified by the loss on shorting 3400 call.

So eventually, I get to keep the whole premium i.e.445 points. This strategy looked fine on paper but when I put it to trade, gap ups and gap downs were tearing this strategy to shreds. Plus I had to rely a lot on luck and that’s not good for any strategy’s success rate. Plus I noticed that every time nifty comes back to the strike price, I was gaining on the straddle but I was giving up profits from nifty.

What I mean is… I shorted nifty at 3397 and it went down to 3360 levels, the 3400 put gained in value, 3400 call lost some value and nifty short was in good profit. But when nifty started going back to 3400 levels, why should I let the profit I made in shorting nifty go away by riding it back. I closed the short at 3365 and put a sell nifty trigger at 3367 and hence I can safely wait it out, for nifty to break 3400 on the upside and 3367 on the down side. And when nifty started falling, I can short it again and ride it down for some more profit. but the main golden rule is not to let nifty go down without me. 3400 and 3367 becomes the range and I have to ride nifty breaking out in either direction.



I welcome any comments or observations or criticism. The very purpose of posting the progress is to attract opinions and that will help me weed out any more flaws.
 
Last edited:

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#2
scrip cost present diff profit/loss
3400 CE 230.00 222.00 8.00 800.00
3400 PE 215.00 203.00 12.00 1,200.00
Nifty Futures 3,432.00 3,367.00 65.00 6,500.00


Total = 8,500.00


The position of the 3400 nifty straddle as of end of 21st April’2009

Script
3400 CE bought at 230 has a current price of Rs. 222 is at a profit of Rs.800
3400 PE bought at 215 has a current price of Rs. 203 is at a profit of Rs.1200
Nifty Futures long Innitiated at the averaged price of 3432 has a current price of Rs. 3367 is at a loss of Rs. 6500

Total = profit of Rs. 8500

Statistics

Cost of the straddle = 445.00
present price of the straddle = 425.00
Actual value of the straddle = 33.00
profit on straddle = 20.00
Profit on nifty = 65.00

total profit = 85.00

Activity today : shorted nifty 3400 straddle for 245 points…going long on nifty at 3402
placed a sl at 3405
3405 got triggered…. Now going short
market whipsawing a lot… placed a sl at 3397
3397 got triggered now going long
placed sl at 3402…. Market is direction less…
3402 got triggered again… going short
market sold off… triling sl at 3385
selling some more now sl at 3365…
got triggered… markets rocoveing… placed a sell trigger at 3367 lets see how it plays out again....
3367 got triggered…. Trailing sl now again/..
3365 sl got hit again….
god what a move…. Now we are going back to 3400 levels again….
placed a buy trigger at 3398….
cancelled that…. Sold nifty again at 3387….
trailed it to 3382 levels….
this is getting too irritating…. The move is very fast…. And jumping aroung like crazy…
will go short is 3367 gets broken or 3402 gets taken out on the long side….
3367 got triggered again….now market is going up without me…
closed at 3372….
placed a sell at 3369 again
got triggered--- market is behaving very wierdly
what a sell off…. Down to 3350 again…
sold it at 3350…
nifty back to 3380 levels…
will need go short at 3350 or go long at 3402
shorting at 3375… trailing sl at 3360
the way its jumping around…it night get hit…
it got hit again….
now its going up….
sold it at 3367…carrying for tomorrow….


nifty calculation
bought at 3402… sold at 3405
3405-3402 = 3 minus 2 as brokerage
3-2 = 1
sold at 3405 bought at 3397
3405 - 3397 - 2 = 6
sold at 3397 bought at 3402
3402-3397-2 = 3
sold at 3402 bought back at 3365
3402-3365 -2 =35
sold at 3367 bought back at 3372
3367-3372-2 = -7
sold at 3369 bought at 3350
3369-3350 -2 = 17
sold at 3375 bought at 3360
3375-3360 -2 = 13
sold it at 3367

points gained = 1+6+3+35-7+17 =65

last short created on 3367 plus points gained
3367+65 = 3432
3432 becomes the cost of of nifty short….
 
Last edited:

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#3
scrip cost present diff profit/loss
3400 CE 230.00 181.00 49.00 4,900.00
3400 PE 215.00 235.00 (20.00) (2,000.00)
Nifty Futures 3,485.00 3,338.00 147.00 14,700.00


Total = 17,600.00


The position of the nifty straddle as of end of 22nd April’2009

Script
3400 CE bought at 230 has a current price of Rs. 181 is at a profit of Rs.4900
3400 PE bought at 215 has a current price of Rs. 235 is at a loss of Rs.-2000
Nifty Futures long Innitiated at the averaged price of 3485 has a current price of Rs. 3338 is at a loss of Rs. 14700

Total = profit of Rs. 17600

Statistics

Cost of the straddle = 445.00
present price of the straddle = 416.00
Actual value of the straddle = 68.00
profit on straddle = 29.00
Profit on nifty = 147.00

total profit = 176.00

Activity today :
Placed sl at 3372…got triggered…
placed a sell trigger at 3374
plan to buy nifty if it crosses 3397 and short it if it goes below 3375
coverd it at 3315…
placed a sell trigger at 3317
got triggered…
nice downtrend…. Thinking of covering the 3400 put… decided against it…. Let it remain...
covered again at 3295…
placed a sell trigger at 3290…market has become direction less…. Better wait it out
what a spike up… wow…
its selling off again… placed a sell at 3325…
got triggered…
nifty is too volatile… jumping aroundthe place….
covered it at 3305
placed a sell trigger order at 3290…. It might break it or jump back…
it jumped back….
selling it at 3332 on closing

nifty calculation
sold at 3432, covered at 3372, points gained 60, -2 as brokerage, net gain of 58 points
sold at 3374, covered at 3315, points gained 59, -2 as brokerage, net gain of 57 points
sold at 3317, covered at 3295, points gained 22, -2 as brokerage, net gain of 20 points
sold at 3325, covered at 3305, points gained 20, -2 as brokerage, net gain of 18 points


effective cost of nifty short = last place shorted, 3332 plus 153
= 3485
 
Last edited:

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#4
CUES-

--Nifty April future premium converted to discount of 7 points so cost of carry decreased..
--Nifty open interest decreased by 8 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 4.20 cr)
--3300 puts had open interest of 63 lacs and 3500 calls had open interest of 55 lacs, so 3300 and 3500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 57.88, increased by 7% suggests instability.
--US markets closed mixed.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3343. (UP 5)
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#5
scrip cost present diff profit/loss
3400 CE 230.00 227.00 3.00 300.00
3400 PE 215.00 174.00 41.00 4,100.00
Nifty Futures 3,253.00 3,445.00 192.00 19,200.00


Total = 23,600.00


The position of the nifty straddle as of end of 23rd April’2009

Script
3400 CE bought at 230 has a current price of Rs. 227 is at a profit of Rs.300
3400 PE bought at 215 has a current price of Rs. 174 is at a profit of Rs.4100
Nifty Futures long Initiated at the averaged price of 3253 has a current price of Rs. 3445 is at a profit of Rs. 19200

Total = profit of Rs. 23600

Statistics

Cost of the straddle = 445.00
present price of the straddle = 401.00
Actual value of the straddle = 45.00
profit on straddle = 44.00
Profit on nifty = 192.00

total profit = 236.00

Activity today :
covered nifty at 3317….
placed a sell at 3310…
niftty jumping from a premium at lower levels to a discount at 3325 levels…
very difficult to trade today…I think I'll just let the position ride….
markets at 3332, above 39 ema… even got a buy signal… will just have to leave it the way it is…
both call and put are loosing value,…straddle value down to 400 levels now
maret at 3362…what a jump up…nf into premium now.,…
3375 now… still no signs of selling pressure…
its getting closer to the 3400 mark now…
shorted at 3368 SL 3374….
exited at 3371,,,, nifty breaking out of the tight range
3400 put down 13 %, 3400 call up 4%
double top formation….
now we have a double bottom formation….wierd
for 2 hours we are stuck at the 3365 to 3385 range…
broke range on the upside…
never thougt I would be buying it above 3400….
whipsaws ---- whisaws… I think I'll saty out…untill all the froth is cleared…
went to 3405-07 then selling pressure increased…. Went down to 3386…
ema 39 at 3375 now…in 5 min chart…
wow… 10 L traded in 2 min…
this is the worst position… bulls and bears fight at 3400 levels… big volumes being traded…
bought nifty at 3410….
placed sl at 3402….
what a day…. We close at 3445…. might be short covering at the last min
 

metushar

Well-Known Member
#6
U are superactive in market.....nice posts......

One question linkon7 how do you know whcih straggle to short, its by hunch or near at the money option for the next series just 5-6 days before expiry of current ?
Any set criteria or you just play by your educated guesses about levels of Nifty ?
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#7
U are superactive in market.....nice posts......

One question linkon7 how do you know whcih straggle to short, its by hunch or near at the money option for the next series just 5-6 days before expiry of current ?
Any set criteria or you just play by your educated guesses about levels of Nifty ?
its more to do with a level that looks to be under threat. Like on 21st when 3400 looked like a level with very stiff resistance 3380-3395-3410 and it appeared that we were heading for a 3250-3150 levels.

main guiding factor is the direction. the market has to move away from the strike. I was planning to do a 3500 straddle but missed it. Yesterdays move really surprised me. the last thing i want is a gap up or down at the strike price level and lesser the whipsaws around the strike price, the safer i can play.

i prefer initiating the straddle short just 10 - 12 trading days before the next series starts. Action starts happening 3-4 days before the series starts. by then i already manage to earn 40-60 points.

strike price preference is also guided by the premium i am getting compared to the actual value. like right now, the actual value of 3400 straddle is 23 and the premium is almost 400. thats a error margin of 380 points for the whole month. something like a play money of Rs. 38,000 that i can afford to loose before i break into a loss. that makes this strategy more safer than playing naked nifty or hedged with OTM options.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#8
I know plenty of guys who have been trading for over 2 - 10 years who are trapped with nifty shorts. some bought protection. some booked losses. some averaged their prices and are into deeper losses.

Yesterdays move took a lot of us by surprise. Thanks to this strategy... i am not one of them. its not that i know the market better. its just that my entry and exit levels are well defined. so i could just wait it out. there is no compulsion to add positions when i am in doubt. there is no pressure of sitting idle.
 

pasha

Active Member
#9
Is there any method of calculating what the straddle is worth at 100 point intervals?
Lets say we sold the 3400 straddle for 400. If the index goes 3500 or 3600 what would the cost be?
At least a rough estimate.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#10
scrip cost present diff
3400 CE 230.00 234.00 (4.00)
3400 PE 215.00 148.00 67.00
Nifty Futures 3,253.00 3,473.00 220.00


Total =


The position of the nifty straddle as of end of 24rd April’2009

Script
3400 CE bought at 230 has a current price of Rs. 234 is at a loss of Rs. -400
3400 PE bought at 215 has a current price of Rs. 148 is at a profit of Rs.6700
Nifty Futures long Innitiated at the averaged price of 3253 has a current price of Rs. 3473 is at a profit of Rs. 22000

Total = profit of Rs. 28300

Statistics

Cost of the straddle = 445.00
present price of the straddle = 382.00
Actual value of the straddle = (73.00)
profit on straddle = 63.00
Profit on nifty = 220.00

total profit = 283.00

Activity today :
market flat…going now where…
placed a sell at 3390 below the 200 ema
market closed at 3473…. Not bad…
 

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