fxGLIDER
Whats yr view on $ / Re .... what wd u advise NRIs (some of us, for instance) sitting on $ FCNRs
I find the situation sad , and scary
AGILENT
Don't have updated charts for USDINR but the uptrend from 1973 is still in force and the current down move is just a correction. Question is, "is this a wave 4 correction?" If it is, then expect a retracement to at least 38.2% which currently sits at 33.45. If it is a 4th of 3 correction then the 23.6% retacement level could provide the continuation of the uptrend. I don't follow this pair so my observations are from just a quick glance at charts valid upto March 9, 2007.
But see comments below for $ FCNR holders and general holders of Dollars internationally.
Big move coming up in strong USD. Should last for months but needs to be monitored on a weekly basis. When the bull move terminates, I plan to be out of USD for quite some time thereafter.
After the bullrun of USD, to find the strongest MAJOR (I avoid the little ones) currency to go Long versus USD, use ratio analysis to find the winner thusly: (use monthly/weekly chart)
AUDNZD .... pick winner here (A)
Run (A) vs CAD .... pick winner here (B)
Run EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPCHF ..... pick winner here (C)
Run (B) vs (C).
There's your winner for the next cycle versus USD.
That's one option.
Another is, run the same winner against Yen -- if NZD comes out as the overall winner and Yen Interest Rate continues to remain low, then you have a whopper of an earnings stream monthly (depending on position size of course).
Watch Interest Rates in Euroland, UK and Aus, NZ. Versus Yen your winner will have a lot to do with the direction of Interest Rate differentials.
Note: Out of every 100 fellows, probably
not a single one is bullish the dollar -- almost everyone is calling for its death. Who are these cats? Probably the very same ones who did the shouting in December 2004. Many of these fellow were hospitalized for weeks after the dollar staged a massive comeback.
A look at the recent COT report shows the "smart money" in ever increasing net short positions EurUsd.